Somaliland and Israeli Influence on the Eastern Coast of Africa

Dr Mohammed Hasab Al-Rasoul

At an exceptionally sensitive moment, as the Israeli-American war against Iran intensifies and the interests of major powers intersect amid escalating competition for influence in Africa and West Asia, the pace of rapprochement between Israel and the breakaway region of Somaliland continues to accelerate.

This rapprochement extends far beyond symbolic political declarations. It is laying the foundations for expanding diplomatic and security relations that cannot be understood in isolation from Israel’s broader expansionist project, nor from the intense international competition over the Red Sea’s strategic maritime corridors. Hargeisa is increasingly becoming a central pillar in efforts to redraw the map of regional influence.

From Diplomatic Representation to Military Presence

The first half of this year witnessed unprecedented developments in this direction.
After Israel became the first country to recognise Somaliland’s independence on 26 December 2025 officially, its Foreign Minister, Gideon Sa’ar, paid an official visit to Hargeisa in January 2026.

Within days, this rapprochement was translated into concrete action. Israel pledged to open an embassy in Somaliland, while Somaliland announced plans to establish its embassy in Jerusalem. This was followed in April 2026 by the appointment of Michael Lotem as the first

Israeli ambassador to the region.

This sequence of events reveals a determined political effort to entrench a new diplomatic reality that may prove difficult to reverse.
Hargeisa and the Search for Elusive Legitimacy

From Hargeisa’s perspective, alignment with the Israeli-American axis represents a potential lifeline after decades of failing to secure regional or international recognition.

Following three decades of diplomatic isolation, Somaliland’s authorities appear to have found an opportunity in Tel Aviv. By leveraging their strategic position overlooking the Gulf of Aden, they seek to present themselves as a stable and reliable security partner for Western powers and Israel, while demonstrating a willingness to make significant political and sovereign concessions in exchange for long-delayed international legitimacy.

The Military Dimension: From Alliance to Forward Operating Base

The security and military dimension is arguably the most consequential aspect of this geopolitical equation.

Recent intelligence reports cited by CNN indicated that Somaliland has been incorporated into a network of advanced Israeli logistical facilities intended to serve as operational support points for long-range Israeli aircraft.

These reports complement investigations published by the French newspaper Le Monde, which documented accelerated engineering works at the strategically important Berbera Airport, including the construction of air-defence and aviation facilities capable of accommodating advanced fighter aircraft.

These developments suggest that Somaliland has moved beyond the role of a political ally and is increasingly becoming an advanced operational platform for direct confrontation with Iran and Yemen, in a manner comparable, according to the author’s argument, to developments involving Sudan.

Recognition in Exchange for Coastlines

As is often the case, Washington appears less concerned with traditional principles of international law, such as sovereignty and territorial integrity, than with strategic interests. It is therefore shaping a security and military partnership with Somaliland.

This was reflected in a US State Department report issued earlier this year, which described Somaliland as a “potentially vital partner” in matters of security, particularly in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and counter-terrorism efforts.

This approach builds upon the Somaliland Foreign Minister’s visit to Washington in May 2025, during which Hargeisa reportedly expressed its willingness to grant the United States a military base on its coastline in exchange for future political recognition.

Washington’s current strategy appears to involve maximising the benefits of Somaliland’s geostrategic location while retaining the prospect of full diplomatic recognition as a bargaining tool to be deployed when necessary.

Five Strategic Threats

According to the author, Israel’s growing presence in Somaliland reflects the nature of the joint American-Israeli approach, in which security concerns and geopolitical interests take precedence over established principles of international law.

This presence is said to generate five major strategic threats:

First: Transforming the Red Sea into an Israeli Sphere of Influence

The conversion of Somaliland’s coastlines and airspace into an advanced military platform could enable Israel to project power across the Red Sea, potentially impose an undeclared maritime containment strategy against parts of the Arabian Peninsula, and conduct operations against Yemen and Iran. Such developments could broaden regional conflict and disrupt global trade routes.

Second: The Fragmentation of Somalia

Recognition of Somaliland may encourage separatist tendencies in other Somali regions, weaken the federal government in Mogadishu, and contribute to renewed instability and internal conflict across the Horn of Africa.

Third: A Precedent for Separatist Movements Worldwide

Israeli recognition could establish a precedent whereby diplomatic and security support for separatist entities encourages similar movements elsewhere in Africa and the Middle East to pursue comparable arrangements in exchange for recognition, potentially undermining fragile international borders.

Fourth: Threats to the National Security of Neighbouring States

The establishment of an Israeli military presence in the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could be perceived as a direct security challenge to Red Sea littoral states, particularly Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Sudan, and Egypt.

Fifth: Re-engineering the Horn of Africa

The author argues that this rapprochement is part of a broader American-Israeli strategy to counter the growing influence of Russia and China in East Africa while supporting Ethiopia’s ambitions to secure access to the Red Sea, potentially at the expense of Somalia’s and Eritrea’s territorial integrity.

Somalia: Strong Cards in a Complex Game

Mogadishu has described current Israeli moves as an existential threat. However, its diplomatic response has thus far failed to match the scale of the challenge.

According to the author, this weakness does not stem from a lack of options but from the absence of a coherent strategy to utilise Somalia’s considerable assets, including:

Africa’s Longest Coastline

Somalia possesses approximately 3,000 kilometres of coastline along the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden, giving it influence over one of the world’s most important maritime corridors.

A Key Artery of Global Trade

Somalia’s strategic position within China’s Belt and Road Initiative provides it with significant geopolitical leverage in the face of Western and Israeli pressure.

Untapped Natural Resources

The country possesses substantial reserves of oil, gas, and minerals that remain largely undeveloped and could attract major international investment.

Geographic Depth and Continental Connectivity

Mogadishu occupies a historically significant position as a gateway to East Africa.
Significant Regional Partnerships

Somalia maintains close relations with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt, while also enjoying a multidimensional strategic partnership with Turkey.

Exclusive Economic Advantages

Mogadishu could deny economic and investment privileges to countries that support separatism while granting preferential opportunities to states that support Somali unity and sovereignty.

Structural Constraints Limiting Mogadishu’s Options

Despite these strengths, Somalia’s ability to deploy them effectively is constrained by serious internal challenges.
These include the continued military confrontation with the militant group Al-Shabaab, deep political divisions between the federal government and some regional administrations, domestic political disputes, and heavy dependence on foreign aid and grants.

These structural constraints have contributed to what the author describes as a largely rhetorical response, underscoring the necessity of domestic reform as a prerequisite for translating potential strength into tangible influence.

International Reactions: Between Condemnation and Action

Unlike the American position, the Arab, Islamic, and African spheres have largely converged in opposition to Israeli moves towards Somaliland.

This opposition has been reflected in statements issued by the League of Arab States, the African Union, and several countries that support Mogadishu.

However, moving from condemnation to meaningful action requires three practical measures:

Strengthening the effective sovereign presence of the Somali state across all regions, particularly those with separatist tendencies, through development, investment, and social programmes.

Launching a diplomatic initiative directed at major powers competing with the American axis, arguing that the security and stability of Red Sea shipping lanes depend upon a strong and unified Somali state rather than fragile separatist entities.

Encouraging regional organisations to adopt binding political and economic measures prohibiting engagement with entities lacking international recognition.

Towards an Effective Somali Strategy

The Somaliland issue can no longer be regarded merely as an internal dispute that will fade over time. It has evolved into an arena of open international competition in which security and military balances are being reshaped in one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions.

Protecting Somalia’s sovereignty and national interests requires an urgent shift from reactive diplomacy and declaratory politics to a proactive strategy that exploits intensifying international competition along its shores.

The Somali state must transform its unique geographic position and untapped natural wealth into powerful diplomatic and economic leverage capable of reshaping the calculations of major powers.

In doing so, it can reinforce a fundamental geopolitical reality: that respect for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial unity remains a cornerstone of stability and security in both the Red Sea region and the wider Horn of Africa.

Translator’s Note: This article reflects the author’s analysis and political interpretation of regional developments. The translation preserves the author’s arguments, tone, and framing while rendering them into formal British English.

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