Will Turkish Mediation Succeed in Mending the Rift Between Somalia and Ethiopia?

Sudanhorizon – Othman Siddiq
The significant efforts undertaken by Ankara to mediate peace between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa have been praised by Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi, who commended Turkey’s role in promoting regional peace and security. According to Turkey’s Anadolu Agency, the minister met with senior directors and advisors at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and briefed them on the progress of the Ankara talks between Somalia and Ethiopia, mediated by Turkey. Fiqi noted that “Somalia has entered the talks (with Ethiopia) in good faith due to the close fraternal relations with Turkey,” expressing his gratitude to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan for their efforts to enhance regional peace and security.
The Somali Perspective
The Somali minister reiterated that his country would not accept any violation of its unity and sovereignty or any foreign ambitions with expansionist goals. He emphasised that the government only agrees to mutual benefits with its neighbour, Ethiopia, commercially. He stressed that any understanding of Ethiopia must align with international laws, norms, and treaties, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Obstacles to Turkish Efforts
During a press conference with his Somali and Ethiopian counterparts more than a week ago, Fidan clarified that the second round of talks discussed some solutions to resolve existing disputes and agreed on a mutually acceptable framework. According to Anadolu, these disputes were cited by Shabelle Media Network (Mogadishu) as the reason for the breakdown of negotiations. In an article published yesterday (Thursday) titled “Somalia Accuses Ethiopia of Obstructing Ankara Talks Due to Maritime Agreement Request,” Shabelle quoted Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Fiqi during a recent press conference in Mogadishu, where he expressed strong opposition to Ethiopia’s demand for a military presence in Somalia. He attributed the failure of the latest round of talks in Ankara to Ethiopia’s insistence on this issue. He criticised Ethiopia’s attempts to gain a military foothold on Somali territory, describing it as unacceptable and highlighting what he referred to as “historical grievances” regarding Ethiopian military operations in Somalia during 2007 and 2008.
Despite these challenges, Turkish mediation remains optimistic about success. Fidan announced in the same press conference with his Somali and Ethiopian counterparts that the third round of talks between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa would be held in Ankara on 17 September.
African Peacekeeping Forces
Shabelle Media also reported that Fiqi acknowledged the sacrifices made by African Union forces, including Ethiopian troops, in the fight against Al-Shabaab. However, he emphasised that this does not justify Ethiopia’s regional or maritime demands. Regarding the future of peacekeeping in Somalia, Fiqi clarified that the decision on which countries will contribute to the new African Union Support Mission to Somalia (AUSSOM), set to replace the African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in January 2025, lies with Somalia. He added, “Every country that participated in the ‘ATMIS’ mission did so voluntarily, and the same applies to the ‘AUSSOM’ mission,” affirming Somalia’s sovereignty in these decisions.
The Ethiopian Position
At the same time, the spokesperson for the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nebiat Getachew, offered insights into Ethiopia’s stance on the “AUSSOM” mission. He noted that the final decision regarding the composition and operational details of the mission is still pending. Getachew emphasised that Ethiopia’s participation would depend on further analysis and consultation with regional and international partners, highlighting Ethiopia’s security concerns in Somalia and advocating a cautious approach toward involvement in the new mission.
According to Sudanhorizon news outlet, relations between the two neighbours deteriorated after Ethiopia signed an agreement with the breakaway region of “Somaliland” in early January 2024, allowing Addis Ababa access to the region’s Red Sea coastline for commercial and military purposes. Somalia rejected this “deal,” calling it “illegitimate and a threat to good neighbourliness and a violation of its sovereignty,” while Ethiopia maintained that the agreement “would not affect any country.”
The Evolution of Turkish-Somali Relations
In late July, under a cooperation agreement between Somalia and Turkey, Ankara announced that it would send a naval exploration ship to Somali waters to support oil and gas exploration as part of a bilateral agreement on hydrocarbon cooperation. Turkey has become a close ally of the Somali government in recent years. Earlier this year, Turkey and Somalia signed defence and economic cooperation agreements during the Somali defence minister’s visit to Ankara.
Turkey is building schools, hospitals, and infrastructure in Somalia and offers scholarships for Somali students to study in Turkey. In 2017, Turkey opened its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu, providing training for Somali soldiers and police.
Thanks to this strong relationship, Turkey’s mediation efforts have been well-received, with hopes that they may help resolve tensions with neighbouring Ethiopia, despite the significant public discontent over Ethiopia’s agreement with “Somaliland,” which is seen as an attempt to fragment Somali unity.
Sudanhorizon reports that transitioning from the “ATMIS” mission to the “AUSSOM” mission marks a significant shift in the African Union’s strategy in Somalia, aiming for a more sustainable and locally integrated security approach. However, discussions around the formation and operational mandate of the African Union peacekeeping force remain contentious, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa. If successful, Turkey’s mediation efforts could pave the way for a more holistic and integrated approach to solving Africa’s security-political problems. Should Ankara succeed in easing tensions between the two neighbours, it may also secure a role as an observer and supporter of the “AUSSOM” mission.