The Fate of the Power Struggle in South Sudan: Will Salva Kiir Succeed in Ousting Machar from the Scene?

Sudanhorizon – Talal Ismail

It appears that the forces effectively dominating power in South Sudan—namely the Dinka tribe and its council of chiefs—have decided to completely eliminate one of the most prominent figures who could pose a real challenge to succeed President Salva Kiir in the event of free and fair elections in South Sudan. Dr. Riek Machar, who hails from the Nuer tribe, could potentially lead a coalition of Nuer, Equatorian, and some Bahr el Ghazal tribes to break the Dinka’s grip on power in the world’s youngest nation.

On March 27, Machar—South Sudan’s First Vice President—was arrested after the Minister of Defense and the Head of National Security stormed his residence and served him an arrest warrant. He has since been denied visits, even from regional and international envoys who came to Juba as part of ongoing efforts to defuse the escalating crisis in South Sudan, sparked by armed conflict in Upper Nile State between the South Sudanese army and irregular forces known as the “White Army,” composed mainly of Nuer youth, Machar’s own ethnic group. The conflict led to the death of the military commander of Nasir, a Dinka.

This is not the first time President Salva Kiir has attempted to sideline and detain his deputy Riek Machar, stoking fears of renewed conflict in South Sudan and the increasing likelihood of bloody confrontations spilling over into neighboring countries.

On July 24, 2013, Kiir dismissed Machar and his cabinet and referred the SPLM Secretary-General at the time, Pagan Amum, for investigation. This led to Machar’s secretive departure from Juba following armed clashes in the city, which then spiraled into a five-year civil war between the Dinka and Nuer. The United Nations reported war crimes and crimes against humanity during that war, which only ended when Khartoum stepped in to mediate under the IGAD framework during Omar al-Bashir’s presidency.

Although the powers that be in Juba have never stopped trying to sideline Machar and eliminate him from the political arena in South Sudan, this time the attempt has taken a new turn.

The government has been working to cause a split within the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), led by Machar. Following his arrest and that of several of his ministers, the ruling authorities sought to win over ambitious Nuer figures and supported them in forming an “alternative leadership” they called the “Interim Leadership.” In recent days, a delegation from this interim leadership, led by Peacebuilding Minister Stephen Par Kuol, met with President Salva Kiir in Juba to discuss “ways to advance the implementation of the 2018 peace agreement.”

That agreement included integrating armed groups into the national army and holding general and presidential elections. The failure to implement it has reignited the latent power struggle.

This meeting with Kiir came just days after a group of senior SPLM-IO members in Juba appointed Stephen Par Kuol as the movement’s interim leader, replacing Riek Machar, who remains under “house arrest.” Kuol stated that he would hold the position until Machar’s release, attempting to soften the blow of his perceived betrayal of the SPLM-IO leader and First Vice President.

This development has caused deep internal division within the SPLM-IO. Several senior officials, including Interior Minister Angelina Teny, Mining Minister Martin Abucha, and Party Secretary-General Regina Kaba, boycotted the meeting that established the interim leadership.

On the other hand, the faction supporting Minister Kuol includes prominent figures like Federal Affairs Minister Lasuba Wongo, Speaker of the Council of States Deng Deng Akon, and former Deputy Finance Minister Agok Makur.

Deng Lam and others, including Stephen Par Kuol, had their memberships suspended by Deputy SPLM-IO Chairman Oyet Nathaniel, who is acting as party leader while Machar is under house arrest.

However, they rejected the suspension, calling Oyet’s decision illegal and noting that he is currently out of the country.

Succession of Salva Kiir

Due to President Salva Kiir’s deteriorating health and advanced age, the succession battle has taken on multiple dimensions. One is the internal, unspoken struggle within the Dinka tribe—which dominates the army and intelligence services. It is clear that those controlling intelligence files have begun sidelining the “old guard” of the SPLA, like Kuol Manyang, in favor of new Dinka leadership. Simultaneously, tribal leaders are working to dismantle any potential alliances between the Nuer and other groups, including Equatorian tribes with their own militias, or non-Dinka tribes of Bahr el Ghazal.

American Pressure

Salva Kiir’s attempts to permanently isolate Machar face U.S. pressure. The United States has called on President Kiir to release his First Vice President, Riek Machar, from house arrest and urged the country’s leaders to demonstrate their commitment to peace.

The U.S. Bureau of African Affairs posted on X: “We are concerned by reports that Riek Machar, First Vice President of South Sudan, is under house arrest. We urge President Kiir to reverse this action and prevent further escalation.”

They added, “It is time for South Sudan’s leaders to demonstrate their declared commitment to peace.”

The President Doesn’t Speak to His First Vice President!!

The relationship between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar has deteriorated since the start of the year. Direct communication between them has broken down, forcing Machar to send a letter dated February 27, 2025, stressing the urgent need for dialogue to prevent further violence and instability. He specifically requested a meeting with President Kiir to discuss the worsening security situation, especially in Upper Nile and Western Equatoria. Kiir did not respond.

The letter stated: “I write again to request a meeting with Your Excellency to discuss the deteriorating security situation in Upper Nile and Western Equatoria, in particular.”

It continued: “On February 20, 2025, I wrote to Your Excellency to discuss the replacement of South Sudan People’s Defense Forces in the town of Nasir, which has become a recent flashpoint.”

Machar warned that the violations in these states were serious enough to warrant intervention by the guarantors of the 2018 peace agreement.

He added: “The violations in these states are so grave that I am compelled to raise these issues with the guarantors, so they can intervene and propose amicable solutions to break the deadlock.”

The Nasir area of Upper Nile State has seen a deterioration in security due to clashes between the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces and armed civilians—the so-called “White Army.”

Where Are Things Headed?

The unfolding events make it clear that relations between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar have reached a point of no return. The involvement of Ugandan troops, some of whom have reached near the Sudanese border, underscores the severity. If Machar does not give up his presidential ambitions, he may be deliberately removed from the scene—through trial and imprisonment, or even assassination. Regardless of whether this scenario comes to pass, the situation in South Sudan is poised for further escalation. The border with Sudan is likely to become a flashpoint—either due to fighting or potential refugee flows.

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