The Selection of the UN Secretary-General… and the Theory of Communicating Vessels

Ambassador Abdel Mahmoud Abdel Halim
Only a few days remain before António Guterres leaves his post as United Nations Secretary-General, having completed two five-year terms. The lift serving the thirty-eighth floor of the UN’s glass headquarters, where the Secretary-General’s office overlooks Turtle Bay on Manhattan’s East River, has been seeing less traffic in recent days. Until quite recently, it was crowded with presidents, envoys, delegates and people seeking political favours.
As Guterres prepares to take a warrior’s rest in his country’s capital, Lisbon, recovering from the “expressing concern” syndrome that commonly afflicts UN secretaries-general, the process of shaping his successor is underway not far away. It is taking the form of informal consultations within the Security Council, governed by Article 97 of the UN Charter, which deals with the appointment of the Secretary-General. This article gives the Security Council the upper hand, with the five permanent members wielding the decisive power of the veto. The General Assembly, meanwhile, appoints the candidate recommended by the Security Council, ideally through consensus, while adding a few “rhetorical embellishments” that have become part of the selection process over time.
Certain aspects of the process have also evolved beyond what the UN Charter explicitly stipulates. These include geographical rotation, under which Latin American and Caribbean countries are being given the opportunity this time. It has also become customary for the candidate not to come from one of the five permanent members of the Security Council.
This contrasts with the League of Nations, established in 1920 under the resolutions of the Paris Peace Conference and the Treaty of Versailles. It appointed the British diplomat Eric Drummond as its Secretary-General, making him the first international civil servant. He remained in the post until 1933, when he was forced to resign after a series of crises beset him. These included Japan’s invasion of China’s Manchuria region, the global economic crisis of 1929 and the retreat into protectionism and economic isolation that followed, the failure of the Geneva Disarmament Conference in 1932, and the rise of Nazism and Fascism.
He was succeeded by the Frenchman Joseph Avenol, who was forced to resign under intense pressure in 1940 following a disastrous tenure. During his time in office, he supported the Nazi-backed Vichy government in southern France and adopted an accommodating stance towards Italy’s occupation of Abyssinia. He was also unenthusiastic about Haile Selassie’s arrival in Geneva to address the League of Nations on the issue. Avenol was succeeded by the Irishman Seán Lester, who remained in the post until the League was formally dissolved on 18 April 1946.
As the United Nations now searches for its tenth Secretary-General, it must take stock of the accumulated successes and failures of those who have held the office before. The story begins with the first Secretary-General, Norway’s Trygve Lie (1946–1952). He established the organisation’s administrative and institutional framework, but led it into direct confrontation with the Soviet Union by supporting American military intervention in the Korean War. The Soviet Union’s comprehensive boycott paralysed his work and eventually forced him to resign.
He was followed by Sweden’s Dag Hammarskjöld (1953–1961), who sought to establish the office’s neutrality and prestige and pioneered the concept of UN peacekeeping forces. He died in a plane crash while travelling to meet Moise Tshombe in an effort to prevent the secession of Katanga and resolve the Congo crisis.
Next came Burma’s U Thant (1961–1971), who helped broker the diplomatic contacts that brought the Cuban Missile Crisis to an end. His tenure also witnessed the independence of numerous African countries. However, he was criticised for withdrawing the United Nations Emergency Force from Sinai too hastily in 1967. The organisation also failed to halt the escalation of the Vietnam War or prevent Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia.
Austria’s Kurt Waldheim (1972–1981) oversaw major, complex peacekeeping operations in the Middle East after the October War, as well as in Cyprus and Bangladesh. However, revelations about his military past and service in the Nazi army seriously damaged his standing.
His successor, Peru’s Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, achieved some successes in facilitating negotiations to end the Iran–Iraq War, securing the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and supporting Namibia’s independence. Among the failures during his tenure was the crisis involving American hostages in Iran.
He was followed by Egypt’s Dr Boutros Boutros-Ghali (1992–1996), who formulated An Agenda for Peace. Nevertheless, the organisation’s shortcomings became starkly apparent in Srebrenica in 1995 and Rwanda in 1994. The US administration was at odds with him and exercised its veto, so he was the only Secretary-General not granted a second term.
Ghana’s Kofi Annan, who served from 1997 to 2006, saw the UN adopt the Millennium Development Goals and establish the Human Rights Council. He also introduced the concept of the Responsibility to Protect. Yet the organisation failed to prevent the US invasion of Iraq. It was embroiled in scandals surrounding the Oil-for-Food Programme, as well as cases of misconduct by peacekeeping personnel in Africa.
His successor, South Korea’s Ban Ki-moon (2007–2016), led international efforts that culminated in the Paris Climate Agreement. Under his leadership, the Sustainable Development Goals succeeded the Millennium Development Goals, and the UN Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women—UN Women—was made operational. However, the organisation recorded several failures in its responses to the crises in Syria, Yemen and Libya.
As for the outgoing Secretary-General, Guterres, he led efforts to confront the COVID-19 pandemic and address climate change. He also helped broker the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative to ease the global food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the organisation failed to deal effectively with the war itself, the situation in Gaza and the wider Middle East, Iran-related issues, and the excesses of the Trump era.
This time, the list of candidates includes four women, reflecting the aspiration to appoint a woman to the post for the first time, alongside several male candidates. The women include Michelle Bachelet, Chile’s former president and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, who withdrew from the race after Chile’s new government declined to support her and in light of her own reading of the informal consultations; Rebeca Grynspan, former Vice-President of Costa Rica and Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD); María Fernanda Espinosa, President of the 73rd session of the UN General Assembly, Ecuador’s former Permanent Representative in New York and a former foreign minister; and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana’s former foreign minister and former Permanent Representative to the United Nations.
The list also includes Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency; Macky Sall, former President of Senegal; and Uganda’s Olara Otunnu, a former foreign minister and Permanent Representative in New York, who also served as the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict.
Macky Sall’s withdrawal is a significant development, signalling Africa’s exit from the race, while Otunnu’s candidacy appears unlikely. Informal consultations have also indicated that Latin American candidates are not in a particularly favourable position. All the candidates face the threat of a veto—not only from the United States, which has expressed reservations about the candidates and their ability to implement its proposed reforms, but also from the other permanent members. The pattern of colour-coded voting in the informal consultations suggests that they, too, are holding red cards in reserve.
Surprises may also emerge, such as Trump’s reported desire to see FIFA president Gianni Infantino lead the United Nations, or the United Arab Emirates’ nomination of its Minister of State for International Cooperation, Lana Zaki Nusseibeh, as a diplomatic candidate.
Until further developments or surprises emerge in the selection of the new Secretary-General, the process will remain governed by the physical theory of communicating vessels. Under this principle, a liquid reaches the same level in all connected vessels, regardless of shape, because the atmospheric pressure acting on them is equal.
Likewise, unless the pressures exerted by the veto-wielding powers are balanced, no candidate can settle comfortably into the prestigious office of Secretary-General. The successful candidate must be someone around whom the five permanent members can reconcile and balance their positions: someone who represents a point of equilibrium and poses no threat to any great power’s interests.

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