Navigating the Blue Nile’s Cascade: Climate Volatility, Upstream Megaprojects, and Wartime Fragility

By Dr Ammar Abakar Abdalla
Specialist in Water Resources, Integrated Water Resources Management, and Transboundary Water Cooperation
Sudan is no longer simply a country through which the River Nile flows on its way to the Mediterranean Sea. It now occupies the centre of one of the world’s most complex hydrological systems. To the south stands the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest water infrastructure project in the Eastern Nile Basin. To the north lies Egypt’s Aswan High Dam, one of the world’s largest water storage facilities. Between them stretches Sudan’s own network of dams and reservoirs—including Roseires, Sennar, Jebel Aulia, Merowe, and Khashm el-Girba—all of which play a highly sensitive role in managing water resources, electricity generation, irrigation and flood control.
This unique geographical position gives Sudan considerable strategic importance, but it also places a heavy responsibility upon the country. Every change in the hydrology of waters flowing from the Ethiopian Highlands affects the operation of Sudan’s dams, while every operational decision taken within Sudan, in turn, influences downstream flows into Egypt.
With the accelerating effects of climate change, dam management has evolved beyond a purely engineering exercise. It has become a complex undertaking involving hydrological science, climate forecasting, water diplomacy, regional coordination, food security and, ultimately, national security. Developments during July 2026 have once again brought this reality into focus, this time through what was essentially a technical event: a temporary decline in water levels along the Blue Nile and at several river monitoring stations across Sudan.
A Government Statement That Reopened the Debate
On 16 July 2026, the General Directorate of Dams at Sudan’s Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation issued an important statement entitled “Statement on the Water Situation and Nile Water Levels.” It was one of the most detailed technical communications released by the ministry in recent years.
According to the statement, the daily inflow into Lake Roseires declined between 7 and 9 July from 207 million cubic metres to 129 million cubic metres per day. This reduction immediately affected releases from both the Roseires and Sennar dams, resulting in lower water levels at Roseires, Wad Al-Eis, Wad Madani, Khartoum, Al-Halfaya and Shendi.
At the same time, the ministry was careful to reassure the public that the overall water situation remained stable. It explained that inflows from the White Nile were above average, while total inflows into the Blue Nile remained favourable compared with both the long-term average and the previous year. It also stressed that dam operations were conducted in accordance with rigorous scientific and operational principles to ensure the safety of hydraulic structures and safeguard water supplies for citizens and the agricultural sector.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of the statement was the insight it provided into the institutional framework underpinning Sudan’s water management. It explained that operations are overseen by a high-level committee comprising:
the Federal Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation;
the Ministry’s Undersecretary;
the Head of the Technical Water Resources Authority;
the Director-General of Dams;
the Director-General of Nile Waters;
the Director-General of Planning;
the managers of Sudan’s major dams;
specialists in dam operations and hydrological modelling; and
other relevant technical agencies.
Given Sudan’s exceptionally difficult circumstances, the continued ability of these institutions to fulfil their technical responsibilities is a significant national achievement deserving recognition. Managing dams involves far more than monitoring water levels. It requires complex daily decisions concerning drinking water supplies, irrigation, dam safety, and preparedness for both floods and drought.
Nevertheless, despite its importance, the statement also raises a number of professional questions that merit careful discussion.
What Has Changed in the Eastern Nile?
Two days after the ministry’s statement, the news website Al-Muhaqqiq published comments by the international water expert and former adviser to Sudan’s Ministry of Irrigation, Dr Ahmed El Mufti, under the headline: “Current Decline in Water Levels Results from the Filling of the GERD… Flooding Could Prove More Damaging.” The interview appeared on 18 July 2026.
Dr El Mufti reaffirmed what has become increasingly apparent to professionals working in the water sector: the construction of the GERD has fundamentally altered the natural hydrological regime of the Blue Nile. Before the dam was built, Sudan’s reservoirs relied largely on monitoring the natural flood cycle and its predictable seasonal variations. Today, river flows are influenced not only by natural rainfall but also by the dam’s operating procedures, storage levels, electricity generation schedules and the extent of coordination between the riparian states.
This technical assessment does not contradict the ministry’s statement; rather, it complements it. While the ministry referred to the reduction in releases originating from the GERD, Dr El Mufti provided a broader explanation by linking the observed changes to the transformation of the Blue Nile’s hydrology following the construction of the dam.
At the same time, however, relying solely on this explanation may not be sufficient to understand the full picture. There is another critically important factor that has not yet received adequate attention: climate.
To be continued in Part Two, where I will examine the technical cooperation document signed between Sudan and Ethiopia in 2022, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre’s GHACOF 73 report, and address a central question:
Why did the ministry’s statement make no reference to the technical cooperation agreement, and how is Sudan’s system of dams and reservoirs actually managed amid these growing complexities?

Shortlink: https://sudanhorizon.com/?p=16066