GERD Squabble is Back: Egypt Objects, Sudan Silent Ethiopia Insists

Cairo – Sudanhorizon – Sabah Musa

The Renaissance Dam crisis returns to media activity and increasing coverage. In the last filling periods of the dam, which start from May until the end of September of each year, we notice movement in the crisis after months of inactivity, with the repetition of the scenario of Egyptian-Sudanese complaints on the one hand and Ethiopian intransigence on the other.

The Fifth Filling

Ethiopia, for its part, continues the fifth filling of the dam, announcing that it has so far filled 62.5 billion cubic meters of the total 64 billion, the final capacity of the dam. Addis Ababa has become accustomed to calling for new negotiations after the completion of each filling, to prove to the world that it has good intentions, disregarding the Declaration of Principles Agreement between it, Egypt, and Sudan signed in Khartoum in 2015, which stipulates an agreement on the rules of filling and operation. Here it is filling its dam for the fifth time, without any binding agreement between the three countries, and it will also go to operation in the same unilateral manner.

Cairo Speech

For its part, Egypt, through its Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aati, confirmed in a letter addressed to the President of the UN Security Council its categorical rejection of the unilateral Ethiopian policies that violate the rules and principles of international law, which he said constitute a clear violation of the Declaration of Principles agreement signed between the three countries. The Egyptian official addressed a letter to the President of the UN Security Council, following the recent statements of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed regarding the fifth phase of filling the Renaissance Dam.

Unacceptable

The minister noted that the statements of the Ethiopian Prime Minister regarding the retention of a quantity of Blue Nile water this year and the completion of the construction of the concrete structure of the Ethiopian dam are completely unacceptable to the Egyptian state, and represent a continuation of the Ethiopian approach that causes unrest with its neighbors and threatens the stability of the region, most of whose countries aspire to enhance cooperation and integration among themselves, instead of sowing the seeds of discord and differences between peoples linked by ties of brotherhood and a common destiny, stressing that the illegal Ethiopian policies will have serious negative effects on the downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan.

Although the high level of the Nile flood in recent years, as well as the great efforts made by the Egyptian state, have contributed to dealing with the negative effects of the unilateral actions of the Renaissance Dam in the past years, Egypt remains closely following developments and is ready to take all measures and steps guaranteed by the United Nations Charter to defend its existence, the capabilities of its people and their interests.

Raising Questions

The Egyptian speech to the Security Council coincides with Ethiopia’s near completion of its fifth filling, which raised questions about the importance of this speech at this time, and whether the Council can take action, or whether it closed this file in its discussions in 2021 that it is not concerned with water crises, and referred the issue to the African Union, which did not move a finger and did not achieve any breakthrough in it, and do we expect a similar speech from Sudan, and what are the next steps if intransigence remains the main feature of Addis Ababa’s positions?

Until now, there is no official Sudanese response regarding the developments of the crisis. We have tried to communicate with the relevant authorities in Sudan and have not found an answer, except for expectations from experts that Sudan will follow Egypt’s example in submitting a letter to the Security Council.

A Usual Step

For his part, Dr. Abbas Sharaqi, Professor of Water Resources at Cairo University, explained that the Egyptian letter to the Security Council is a usual step after each filling as a form of establishing the objection. Sharaki told the Sudanhorizon news website that it is a necessary step to prove that Egypt objects to all unilateral Ethiopian decisions, and that it wants to officially prove its objection at the United Nations, adding at the same time that the letter came late, and was supposed to be submitted at the beginning of the fifth filling, i.e. 3 months ago, adding that there was also supposed to be an Egyptian response to the recent statements of the Ethiopian Foreign Minister about the completion of construction and filling of the dam, and he continued, I do not think that there will be a reaction from the Security Council to this letter, as long as the letter does not bring anything new, referring to the Security Council’s statement on the subject in 2021, in which it indicated that it is not competent in water issues. Water bomb

The Egyptian expert called for the need to focus on the dam’s safety file when resorting to the Security Council, and said that the Renaissance Dam has become a water bomb that threatens the lives of millions of Sudanese, and therefore a position must be taken on this, and warned of the need to fill the dam to less than 10 meters from the end of the height of the storage lake to maintain its safety, noting that the Ethiopian Foreign Minister’s statement that the storage of 62.5 billion cubic meters has been completed, and that in December it will be 70 billion is exaggerated and inaccurate, and he said that the actual storage has reached only 57 billion so far, and that there is no rain in December for there to be an addition, stressing that despite all of this, negotiation is important, explaining that the current filling is the first filling to full capacity and after that the turbines will be operated, and he said that there must be negotiation on the rules of operation and repeated filling, and cooperation and coordination must be made on the lake reaching its maximum capacity, stressing the need to stay away from sensitive points in the negotiations related to water shares, and he said that a kind of flexibility should be shown by the parties and not focus on these sensitive points, and the need to prove good intentions, Adding that the dam has now become a reality, and therefore it is necessary to agree on basic terms away from details.

Very Dangerous

For his part, Dr. Amin Ismail Majzoub, the Sudanese security and military expert, believed that the letter submitted by Egypt to the Security Council in which Cairo places the Council before its international responsibilities regarding the Renaissance Dam file. Majzoub told Sudanhorizon that the recent developments and the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s talk about completing the concrete construction and the fifth filling are all matters that greatly harm the downstream countries and the environment, adding that there are torrents and floods in Sudan due to this filling and opening the doors of the dam’s turbines, pointing out that Ethiopia is moving without any binding agreement or cooperation, and that any danger that occurs as a result of collapses in the dam or environmental impacts or the retention of these large quantities without cooperation between the three countries will affect the drought periods, adding that this may have a major impact on the issue of redistributing the shares that Ethiopia is calling for, stressing that this is a very dangerous matter, because they are historical shares, and he said that Egypt and Sudan have a historical right.

Limiting Ethiopia

According to the Sudanese expert, Ethiopia does not benefit from water except for electricity generation, and therefore any development projects must be in partnership with the two downstream countries, referring to the circumstances that the region is going through, from war in Sudan and conflicts in Somalia and problems within Ethiopia itself. He believed that the Egyptian speech to the Security Council came at the right time, expecting that the Sudanese leadership will follow Egypt’s example by addressing the Security Council to put the world before its responsibilities and that the options will be open. He said that the first steps are to address the world, explain the positions and rights, and that the second option is the International Court of Justice, and that there are other options available to protect the water and human security of Egypt and Sudan, adding that the Sudanese government, despite the problems it suffers from, I expect it to give this file great importance in coordination with the Egyptian authorities, which have the experience and sufficient information. We return to the atmosphere of 2021 with the Security Council session, as well as the signing of the principles agreement, which was done in good faith by the downstream countries, calling for curbing Ethiopia from these unilateral measures that it is taking without coordination with the downstream countries, and preserving the human and water security of Egypt and Sudan.