Afwerki in Cairo: Alliance of Interests and Strategic Convergence in the Face of Growing Regional Ambitions

Cairo – Sudanhorizon– Sabah Moussa
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s visit to Cairo on Monday comes at a highly sensitive regional juncture, amidst rapid developments in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region, as well as the ongoing war in Sudan. The visit also highlights the growing level of coordination between Egypt and Eritrea on a number of strategic issues, most notably Sudan and Red Sea security, in light of escalating regional challenges that required enhanced consultation and cooperation between the two countries to maintain regional stability.

Strengthening Relations
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi received his Eritrean counterpart, Isaias Afwerki, in Cairo on Monday. The two leaders held talks that addressed ways to strengthen bilateral relations, as well as developments in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region, and several regional issues of mutual interest. During the talks, both presidents emphasized the importance of continued coordination and consultation on regional issues to support security and stability in the region, while stressing the need to enhance joint cooperation between Egypt and Eritrea in various fields.

Unity of Sudan
Regarding the Sudanese situation, both sides stressed the necessity of preserving Sudan’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, supporting national state institutions, and rejecting any steps or arrangements that could compromise the country’s unity or undermine its institutions. The talks also addressed developments in the Red Sea region, with both presidents emphasizing the importance of maintaining the security and stability of waterways and strengthening cooperation among coastal states in a way that serves the interests of the region’s peoples and enhances regional security.

A Shared Vision
Experts believe that the Eritrean president’s visit to Cairo reflects a continuing upward trajectory of political and strategic coordination between Cairo and Asmara. This rapprochement is no longer limited to bilateral relations but is now directly linked to sensitive regional issues, most notably Sudan, Red Sea security, and the Horn of Africa. This comes at a time when relations between the two countries have witnessed significant momentum in recent years, exemplified by the frequent exchange of visits and meetings between Sisi and Afwerki. This is Afwerki’s fifth visit to Cairo during Sisi’s presidency, reflecting a shared vision on a number of regional issues and lending these meetings added importance amidst the rapid geopolitical shifts the region is experiencing.

A Strategic Necessity
Sudan appears to be one of the most prominent drivers of rapprochement between Cairo and Asmara. Both countries view its stability as a strategic necessity for the security of the entire region. Egypt believes that the continuation of the war threatens regional security and affects the security of its southern borders, while Eritrea shares a long border with eastern Sudan and closely monitors political and military developments there. The two countries also agree on the importance of preserving Sudan’s unity and sovereignty and rejecting any scenarios that could lead to its disintegration or prolong the conflict. This explains the constant presence of the Sudanese issue in joint statements and presidential meetings between the two sides.

Red Sea Security
The Red Sea also constitutes a strategic point of convergence between Cairo and Asmara. Egypt considers Red Sea security an integral part of its direct national security, while Eritrea is one of the countries bordering this vital waterway, which is witnessing increasing international and regional competition. From this perspective, the two countries adopt a similar stance based on the necessity for Red Sea littoral states to play a leading role in managing security and stability issues in the region, while discouraging external interventions that could further complicate the security landscape. The importance of this issue has increased in light of the security tensions the region witnessed in recent years, whether related to the war in Sudan, the unrest in some Horn of Africa countries, or the challenges facing international navigation.

The Horn of Africa
At the same time, the Egyptian-Eritrean rapprochement cannot be separated from the ongoing power dynamics in the Horn of Africa. Cairo and Asmara share similar views on a number of regional issues and seek to strengthen political coordination to confront security challenges that could affect the region’s stability. Eritrea views Egypt as an influential regional partner that can contribute to supporting regional stability, while Cairo sees Asmara as an important player due to its strategic geographic location on the Red Sea and its influence on Horn of Africa affairs.

Frequent Visits
The frequent visits and meetings between the two presidents in recent years reflect the shift in the relationship from traditional cooperation to a higher level of strategic consultation. The rapid developments in Sudan, the security challenges in the Red Sea, and the geopolitical changes in the Horn of Africa all make continuous coordination between the two countries essential. Cairo has also become one of President Afwerki’s main stops when discussing major regional issues, indicating growing political trust between the two leaderships and their understanding of the importance of joint action on issues affecting security and stability in the region.

Shared Interests
It can be said that Egyptian-Eritrean relations are currently experiencing one of their closest periods in years, driven by a clear consensus on issues related to Sudan, the Red Sea, and the Horn of Africa. With the ongoing regional crises, this coordination is likely to continue, and the coming period will witness further meetings and consultations between the two countries in an effort to protect their shared interests and enhance regional stability.

The Importance of the Visit
This visit by President Afwerki to Cairo comes within the framework of ongoing coordination between the two countries regarding regional issues, particularly the rapidly evolving situation in the Horn of Africa.
The situation in Sudan raises questions about the significance of this visit at this particular time, the messages it conveys regarding the situation in Sudan and the region, and the political and strategic targets of these messages.

Containing Influence
For his part, Sudanese researcher on African affairs, Dr. Mohamed Torshin, believes that Afwerki’s visit to Cairo comes within the framework of coordination and cooperation between the two countries, as well as between Cairo and Sudan, and Cairo and Somalia, in an attempt to contain Ethiopian influence in the region. Torshin told Sudanhorizon that Ethiopia has issued repeated statements expressing its desire to gain access to the Red Sea or the Indian Ocean to address what it describes as its geographical isolation, noting that Addis Ababa is heavily focused on the Red Sea, which makes it a direct source of concern for Eritrea.

Expansionist Ambitions
Torchin added that Ethiopia harbors expansionist ambitions toward Eritrea, and that Asmara is attempting, through this visit, to strengthen its partnerships with countries in the region. He noted that Egypt is among the countries with differing viewpoints with Ethiopia regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and several other water-related issues. He emphasized that unifying this front and its stance toward Ethiopia is part of a vision based on strengthening bilateral relations to confront threats, whether military or political. He cited the GERD experience and Addis Ababa’s imposition of a fait accompli policy, which has prompted several countries in the region, most notably Eritrea, to express their concerns regarding issues related to Ethiopian expansion and influence.

A Message to Ethiopia
Torchin indicated that Asmara’s options are based on coordination and security dimensions through partnership with Egypt, with the aim of sending a message to Ethiopia—in one way or another—that the parties with whom it has disagreements are moving towards unifying their positions within a single front to confront common challenges. He pointed out that Ethiopia accuses Egypt of being an obstacle to achieving its interests in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region, stressing that this visit will have important repercussions in terms of strengthening partnerships and political and security coordination between the two countries, and attempting to limit the expansion of regional influence in the region.

Shortlink: https://sudanhorizon.com/?p=14622