The Inability of the US Economy to Sustain War Demands, and Sudan’s Strategic Positioning

Prof. Hussein Suleiman Mohamed Ahmed
The United States Secretary of Defence has requested that Congress approve an additional $1.1 trillion for the annual budget, which runs from 1 October to 30 September each year. This request signals the inability of American economic, financial, and security planning to anticipate future developments. It also reveals that the contingency reserves authorised within the annual budget are extremely limited.
Traditionally, when approving annual budgets, legislators allocate a percentage of GDP to an emergency reserve to cover unforeseen expenditures. The Treasury and the central bank may utilise this reserve in times of crisis without prior legislative approval. The Secretary of Defence’s request, therefore, also reflects the scale of depletion affecting US military capabilities.
It will be difficult for Congress to approve an additional $1.1 trillion on top of a $7.1 trillion annual budget, particularly under current economic conditions. The United States is grappling with a public debt exceeding $38.1 trillion, while debt servicing alone reached $970 billion last year. In addition, the budget deficit surpassed $1 trillion, alongside sluggish economic growth fluctuating below 2%. Meanwhile, some American analysts have begun expressing concern that international law could oblige the United States to compensate for damage inflicted on the Iranian economy, on the grounds that the US and Israel initiated hostilities.
At the same time, the outbreak of war has introduced new financial and economic risks to the US economy. These include heightened asset risk, rising borrowing costs, and increased bond yields. Capital flight has also been observed, with “hot money” shifting from the United States to China, which possesses energy reserves sufficient for six months. This reduces the impact of rising global energy prices, particularly given China’s substantial investment in alternative energy and its strong property market demand.
In Russia—one of the principal pillars of the BRICS grouping—revenues have increased significantly as it capitalises on expanded oil and gas exports, in a market where demand exceeds supply by more than 22%.
From a geo-strategic, geopolitical, and geo-economic perspective, three global poles are emerging: the American pole; the Iranian pole, with Iran representing merely the visible tip of a much larger structure; and the European pole, which currently remains in a state of cautious observation, though its interests are unlikely to align with either of the other two fully.
At the global level, the war has contributed to rising inflation driven by cost pressures, particularly higher energy prices. Transport costs have also increased, compounded by rising logistics expenses linked to disrupted supply chains. These disruptions have been exacerbated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the US–Israeli war against Iran.
Looking back at Donald Trump’s electoral campaign, his slogan “America First” and the priorities outlined in his victory speech—pledging to act as a “messenger of peace” and to end ongoing conflicts, particularly the Russian–Ukrainian war—stand in stark contrast to current developments. The 912-page policy blueprint that guided his second term appears to have been significantly undermined by a shift towards military confrontation, from Venezuela to Iran. This represents a clear departure from both the “America First” doctrine and the strategic plans developed by US research institutions and endorsed by lawmakers.
Furthermore, the anticipated economic gains from emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies have not materialised. This is partly due to the emergence of Chinese AI technologies, such as DeepSeek, which demonstrate significantly lower operational costs than American systems like ChatGPT. For instance, processing 1 million queries with DeepSeek may cost approximately $0.20, compared to $20 for comparable US-based systems. This disparity is attributed to lower infrastructure costs in China, according to industry insiders. As a result, the US administration has scaled back its expectations of AI as a driver of economic growth and a solution to the expanding national debt.
On the social front, widespread protests have erupted across the United States opposing its involvement in Israel’s war. Many opinion leaders, academics, and researchers have called for an end to the conflict, citing its direct impact on rising living costs and the financial burden placed on American citizens.
For Sudanese strategic decision-makers, particularly in foreign relations, careful monitoring and prudent positioning are essential. Sudan must avoid alignment that could jeopardise its relations with any of the emerging global blocs, instead maintaining a balanced stance guided by national interests, shared benefits, and the aspirations of the Sudanese people.

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