The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): The American Initiative and Protecting Sudan’s Interests

Opinion

Dr. Ammar Abkar Abdullah Abdulrahman

Political and diplomatic activity surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) intensified in January 2026 following a message from US President Donald Trump to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
This was echoed in a statement issued by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sudanese Transitional Sovereign Council, on the “X” platform on January 17, 2026.
Al-Burhan welcomed and supported the initiative, aiming to protect the rights of Nile Basin countries and ensure regional security. He tweeted: “The Sudanese government welcomes and supports President Trump’s initiative and mediation regarding the Nile waters, in order to find sustainable and satisfactory solutions that preserve everyone’s rights, thus contributing to the sustainability of security and stability in the region.”
This statement represents Sudan’s official position and underscores Khartoum’s commitment to water security and its national interests. It also reflects alignment with the Egyptian and American vision of resuming mediation to reach a solution that is sustainable and legal.
In an interview with Al Jazeera Mubasher – Sudan Window on January 24, 2026, Khaled Al-Aisir, Sudan’s Minister of Culture and Information, emphasized that Sudan is protecting its interests as a source, transit point, and downstream recipient of the Nile waters, and is working to address its concerns with the Ethiopian side away from the public eye.
Al-Aisir explained that the American initiative presents clear and objective points and allows for the resumption of American mediation on the dam issue, which supports the existing Sudanese-Egyptian vision. He added that Sudan’s primary objective at present is to focus on the operation of the dam and ensuring its safety, in addition to the urgent need for a legally binding international agreement that prevents any encroachment or transgression by any party, especially given the limited capacity of African regional institutions to make independent decisions.
Alongside political analysis, technical expertise offers practical solutions to the outstanding issues in the matter. A research paper titled “An Adaptive Approach to Flood Management in the Eastern Nile” was presented at the “Enhancing Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in the Eastern Nile” forum held in Addis Ababa in August 2018. This paper was co-authored and co-presented with Dr. Youssef Ibrahim, the former Acting Executive Director of the Eastern Nile Technical Office in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
The paper addressed how to manage the high seasonal and annual variability in the Eastern Nile system and the increasing risks posed by extreme weather events such as floods and droughts. It focused on managing large infrastructure projects, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Ethiopia and the Roseires Dam in Sudan, within an integrated and flexible flood and drought management framework.
Technical proposals included real-time flood forecasting and early warning systems, the deployment of intelligent and automated decision support technologies, and coordinated communication between reservoirs from upstream to downstream to enhance water management across the entire basin.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), whose construction began in 2011 at an estimated cost of $4-5 billion, is Ethiopia’s largest power project. The reservoir reached its maximum capacity in September 2022 after the completion of the first phase of filling. However, the absence of a legally binding international agreement makes the issue sensitive for the water security of both Sudan and Egypt, making international mediation and binding laws essential to ensuring the sustainability of water rights.
Recent developments combine political and diplomatic efforts with a practical technical vision, offering Sudan an opportunity to advance its national interests.
The US initiative provides a framework for legal and diplomatic mediation, while the proposed technical vision enhances operational coordination and the structural integrity of the dam.
The integration of Sudanese technical expertise and specialists ensures the development of sustainable and secure solutions for managing the basin’s waters. Combining politics, engineering, and national interest is the cornerstone for achieving water security and regional stability in the Eastern Nile Basin.

-Researcher and Analyst in Trans-boundary Water Affairs

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