Did the US Fund the GERD? Trump Calls the Funding “Stupid”… Timing, Motives, and Implications

By: Sabah Moussa – Sudanhorizon – Cairo

In an unprecedented move, former U.S. President Donald Trump spoke for the first time about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in his new campaign, stating that America had funded the dam and describing this funding as “stupid.” His statement stirred a diplomatic row between Ethiopia and Egypt.

Stupid Funding

Commenting on the possibility of not receiving a Nobel Peace Prize despite what he considers to be major accomplishments during his term, Trump touched on several international issues—chief among them maintaining peace between Egypt and Ethiopia. He stated that the United States “stupidly” funded the Renaissance Dam, which Ethiopia built on the Blue Nile, sparking a severe diplomatic crisis with Egypt. He emphasised that the dam significantly reduces the flow of water into the Nile River.

Establishing Calm

Trump posted on his “Truth Social” platform that he is committed to promoting calm in the Middle East, as he had done in various conflicts, including those between Israel and Iran, India and Pakistan, Serbia and Kosovo, and Egypt and Ethiopia in their dispute over a massive dam affecting the great Nile River. He stated that peace currently exists—at least for now—thanks to his intervention and that it will continue.

Trump’s statement generated strong reactions, especially regarding the motives behind raising this issue at this specific time and its future implications. During his first term, Trump played a mediation role in the GERD negotiations but failed to resolve the conflict between the two countries.

An Old Game

Former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Dr Mohamed Nasr Eldin Allam commented on Trump’s statement, saying, “What a ridiculous tragedy.” In a Facebook post, Allam added that Trump failed to consider that he was discussing Egypt, which is well aware of who was behind the events of 2011 and the current and planned Ethiopian dams, dating back to the 1960s. He noted that distracting nations and shifting their focus from one issue to another—via various conflicts—is a very old game.

Egyptian international law expert Dr Ayman Salama also commented via Facebook: “Just to clarify for Uncle Trump and his Facebook followers, Egypt has not, and will not, launch any war against Ethiopia… The matter is settled.”

Grabbing Attention

Dr. Abbas Sharaky, an Egyptian water resources expert, believes Trump’s remarks about the dam were intended to draw attention to his international roles. Speaking to Al-Muhaqiq, Sharaky said the U.S. did not fund the Renaissance Dam. He explained that in 2020, the U.S. sponsored negotiations over the dam and helped draft an agreement between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. However, Ethiopia did not attend the signing, Egypt signed it, and Sudan refused due to Ethiopia’s absence.

Since then, negotiations have failed. Sharky noted that Trump was frustrated with Ethiopia’s actions at the time and, two months later, suspended U.S. aid to Ethiopia—about $20 million. He questioned: if America truly funded the dam, could Trump have said during his first term that the dam poses a threat to Egypt and that if Egypt attacked it, “no one would blame it”? He viewed Trump’s remarks as a critique of President Joe Biden’s administration, stating that Trump often accuses Democrats of wasting U.S. money unwisely. He noted that the dam’s storage was completed in September last year, reaching 60 billion cubic meters.

An Admission Without Details

Sudanese international law expert Dr Ahmed Al-Mufti pointed out that followers of the GERD issue had never heard of any U.S. funding—until Trump’s recent admission. Speaking to Al-Muhaqiq, Al-Mufti, who resigned from the international GERD committee, said the U.S. president revealed the funding amidst the chaos of the Israeli attack on Iran—without providing any details about whether the funding was full or partial or whether it came directly from the U.S. government or affiliated entities.

He added that if the funding came from a party not directly involved in negotiations between Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia, the admission would carry little weight. However, the U.S. was one of the closely involved stakeholders. It was the one who invited the three countries to Washington when negotiations stalled and even drafted a proposal that Egypt accepted but Ethiopia rejected. The U.S. had even appointed a special envoy for GERD-related affairs.

Hidden Motives

Dr Al-Mufti emphasised that despite this deep engagement, the U.S. never previously admitted to funding the dam, suggesting that Trump’s recent statement serves U.S. interests, not those of the three countries. He added that if America had acknowledged its funding from the outset, it would have lost legitimacy as a mediator. He proposed another possible motive: to win over Egypt. Currently, there are divergent views between the U.S. and Egypt, especially regarding the idea of relocating Palestinians to Sinai and Israeli concerns over Egypt’s military presence in Sinai, which allegedly violates agreements. He said Trump’s statement, expressed with regret over the funding, signals that the U.S. enabled Ethiopia to control Nile waters to Egypt’s detriment.

Reassurance and Apology

Sudanese security and strategic expert Dr Amin Ismail Majzoub argued that Trump’s statement reveals that Egypt has long been a major obstacle to U.S. policy in the Middle East. Speaking to Al-Muhaqiq, he said Egypt is a central regional power with significant influence, prompting the U.S. to participate in funding the dam—using American or Gulf money—as a means to pressure Egypt regarding water issues and revising the Nile Water Agreement.

However, all these pressures failed to produce the outcomes the U.S. had expected over the years. He noted that this saga began with the dam’s construction in 2011 and the signing of the Declaration of Principles in 2015 and continues to the present. So what changed now? He argued that the Israel-Iran war changed the dynamics and that the U.S. now needs Egypt.

Majzoub viewed Trump’s comments as an attempt to “lay the cards on the table” and a confession of regret over what he called “stupid funding.” He believes the U.S. now recognises Egypt’s pivotal role in the region. With Israel and its neighbours appearing increasingly fragile, Egypt stands out as the only stable regional power. He emphasised Egypt’s influence in resolving the Palestinian issue, securing navigation in the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and ending the war in Sudan. He concluded by suggesting that the U.S. may hand over the Sudanese file to Egypt, which has a better understanding of its complexity. In this context, he sees Trump’s statement as both a gesture of reassurance and an apology aimed at opening a new chapter with Cairo.

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