How the Trajectory towards Democracy Turned into a Tragic War in Sudan!

By Ambassador Dr. Khidir Haroun

Could Sudan’s April 15th 2023 civil war have been avoided?
The quick answer to this consequential question is yes. What went wrong then?
External intervention into Sudan’s domestic issues has derailed the safest transitional path from a totalitarian regime to a civilian democratic one, a path Sudan walked successfully – twice. The first was in 1964 when a popular uprising managed to bring down General Abbood’s military rule. And the second was in 1985, when a similar popular uprising ended General Jafar Nimeri’s military regime.
In both cases, the Sudanese people, without any bloodshed or help from abroad installed a multiparty democracy similar to the British system of governance – as Sudan was a British colony.
Unfortunately, the two civilian democratic governments had failed to take roots in Sudan as both were characterized as weak and unable to deliver. As a result, the army took over again. Governance in Sudan became known for being in a continuous vicious cycle rotated between army dictatorships and inefficient civilian rule, a situation that necessitated seeking ways and means to break that negative cycle. That task could have been accomplished through inclusive Sudanese dialogue without the intervention of others.
The geopolitics in the region have changed and new players emerged looking far beyond the oil revenues era seeking external influences. Sudan has stockpiles of minerals, fertile land, and fresh water to make it attractive to foreign interests.
The Arab Spring popular uprising in 2001 and beyond led to the rise of Islamists in Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, and Syria. It was thus perceived as a real threat to autocratic regimes in the region. Though Bashir’s regime, toppled by a popular uprising, was perceived as an Islamic regime and many of the younger Islamists in Sudan were participating in the uprising that toppled him, the region’s autocrats assumed out of fear that Islamists would win any free election that would have been held soon. An assumption that seemed strange because it contradicted the fact that the Islamist had just lost power. So, they think that this should not be allowed to happen. They joined with others beyond the entire region and handpicked tiny Sudanese undemocratic political parties, communists, Baathists, Pan-Arabist, renegade individuals from historical parties and extremist liberals to avert that from happening. That how they had strategized to prevent any efforts to true democratic rule in the region – Islamists or not – that may take roots there and aspire people of the region to seek the same.
Based on that assumption, the entire transitional period tailored to prevent that hypothetical scenario from happening.
With heavy foreign interference, the transitional government, which was supposed to be a caretaker comprised of nonpartisan technocrats who would prepare the country for elections, was completely formed from the ranks of the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) the umbrella consisted of small parties mentioned above. They were erronously considered to be the only stakeholders and agents of change – contrary to realities on the ground. All others were excluded from Dr Abdulla Hamdoc’s cabinet which was installed in August 2019.
That transitional government sought assistance from the United Nations to guard the transitional period. In response to Dr Hamdoc request, the UN Secretary General sent the United Nations’ Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) headed by Volker Perthes.
Additionally, other bodies joined in to guard the designed transitional period: The Quadrilateral consisted of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom and United States of America. The Trilateral consisted of The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), The United Nations, and The African Union.
All of these organizations and governments came together to do what the Sudanese had already successfully done for themselves in the past. This endeavor however aimed at guarding the interests of all the participants first and foremost.
The transitional government rather than working hard to hand over the power to the people, embarked on measures to prevent Islamists from coming back by the ballot box. The first priority was given to purge the state institutions from elements perceived erroneously to be pro the defunct regime.
Thousands of army officers, judges, ambassadors, diplomats, professors, physicians, and even workers were fired. Additionally, liquid assets and real estate belonging to those were confiscated without any court ruling or arbitration body to address any of the grievances. Many charities and religious organizations were banded for being accused of belonging to Bashir’s era.
Accession to treaties is usually done by an elected government and ratified by a legitimate elected legislative body. The transitional government decided to replace the laws governing personal issues such as marriage, divorce, and inheritance which have been in place throughout the entire 58 years of the British colonial rule, by the treaty called the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women, (CEDAW) which Sudan and some other nations like the US refused to sign.
The above-mentioned designers crowned their efforts to create a Sudan that served the abroad interests by making a document known as The Structural Agreement claiming it was written by the Sudanese Bar Association – a claim that was refuted by some members of the association.
Eventually, the members of the dissolved government admitted that they sought assistance of a lawyer lady from South Africa. The document was nothing but a detailed constitution for the future Sudan while writing a constitution is a painstaking task done by an elected legislative body!
The issue in that document which has triggered this ongoing war was the integration of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in efforts to create a unified single national army. The Commander of the Army General Burhan initialed the document but discovered later on that the intent of the authors of the document was to get rid of the entire army within two years – as it was accused of being infested by Islamists – and keeping the RSF for ten or even twenty years. This technically meant that the national army would be replaced by the RSF, which was merely a tribal group from Darfur with a commander and his brother as his deputy. As a result of this, the army refused to sign the document.
The custodian of the document then threatened saying that failing to sign would mean that war would be inevitable. That was said in a press conference still available today only three days before the eruption of the war in Saturday April 15, 2023. This clearly indicated who started the war. None of the many mediators mentioned before jumped in to stop the war which meant tacit approval if not complicity.
When the war erupted, the many designers the Quadrilateral, Trilateral, and IGAD distanced themselves and reduced all these events to call it “A war between two generals”, a narrative that was used to cover up the aggression that was inflicted by the UAE and executed by the RSF militia.
Regrettably, such tragic mistakes of biblical proportions on poor countries like Sudan resulted in the death of thousands of precious human lives, loss of their properties, and unthinkable destruction of the country’s critical infrastructure. These crimes against humanity unfortunately go unpunished in other please not so far from Sudan.
Every head of state in the world and major news outlet know that the United Arab Emirates has been the source of lethal weapons that killed poor children, women, the elderly, and internally displaced many others in Abushook and Zamzam in north Darfur. The US permanent representative to UN described the massacre of the Massalit in Jenaina in western Darfur as a genocide committed by the RSF which is armed by the UAE. In spite of all those atrocities, the killing is continuing today by sophisticated Chinese drones. All electric and water infrastructure are under heavy bombardment on a daily basis. Hospitals around Sudan are out of service and unable to provide basic medical service to people.
The United Nations Security Council which is supposedly the custodian of peace and security of the world refused to allow an emergency meeting to discuss the UAE’s aggression against a member state, the Republic of Sudan. The United States of America, an ally to the UAE, and the leader of the Free World is so far reluctant to listen to its august legislative body. The US Congress confirmed that the UAE is supplying the RSF militia with American made weapons and asked the former President Joe Biden to stop the sale of those weapons. Biden refused and allowed the killing to continue.
The existence of world justice rings hollow today and in this digital era in human history, the names of countries and leaders who allow these tragedies in Sudan to happen will be recorded along with those thugs of major wars of mankind such as Hitler, Mussolini, and Genghis Khan.
The ongoing UAE atrocities carried out by the RSF for more than two years now have inflicted death and heavy suffering on our people. This is on full display via the TV screens, social media, and front pages of major international papers. We appeal to you as a fellow human to contribute to its ending by urging your representatives and governments to do something to stop it – and that would clear your conscious from any burden of responsibility.

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