Sudan Between Two Dams: How is the Sudanese Dam System Managed Amid Climate Change and Regional Challenges? (2-3)

Dr. Ammar Abkar Abdullah **

Amidst the debate following the statement issued by the Sudanese Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation and the article written by Dr. Ahmed Al-Mufti, a technical document, perhaps unknown to many interested in water issues, has resurfaced, despite its significant importance.

On September 6, 2025, an article was published entitled, “What is the truth about Sudan signing a bilateral agreement with Ethiopia regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam?” …The article discusses the document “Technical Rules and Guidelines for First Filling and Annual Operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD),” a technical document signed by Sudan and Ethiopia in Khartoum on October 26, 2022. The document was signed on behalf of Sudan by Professor Saif El-Din Hamad Abdullah, head of the Sudanese delegation, and on behalf of Ethiopia by Ambassador Dr. Eng. Sileshi Bekele, head of the Ethiopian delegation. It was also endorsed by the Ministers of Water of both countries: Eng. Daw El-Beit Abdel Rahman Mansour, Acting Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources, representing Sudan, and Dr. Eng. Habtamu Etefa, Minister of Water and Energy, representing Ethiopia. The article clarifies that this document is not a political agreement in the traditional sense, but rather a technical and operational framework governing cooperation between the two countries regarding the initial filling and annual operation of the GERD, the exchange of information and data, coordination between the GERD and the Roseires Dam, emergency and drought management, and the establishment of a joint technical committee and ministerial mechanism to monitor implementation.

Anyone reading the document will notice its strong emphasis on building technical trust between the two institutions responsible for water management in both countries, stemming from the fact that the safe operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Roseires Dam has become directly intertwined. The document stipulates the daily exchange of information regarding water levels and flows, the monthly exchange of hydrological and meteorological data, and the notification of Sudan of the GERD’s annual operating plans, in addition to cooperation in emergencies and unusual operational changes. These provisions are of exceptional importance under the current circumstances, as they were originally designed to address situations requiring rapid information exchange and decision-making.

Perhaps the most striking aspect is that this document, despite its technical significance, has not received sufficient dissemination within professional circles. This raises legitimate questions about the extent to which strategic technical documents are circulated within the relevant institutions, especially after nearly three years since its signing. While some specialists have only now seen it after its public release, this opens an important discussion about the importance of making technical documents available and enhancing institutional knowledge to support data-driven decision-making.

Sudan Between Two Dams:

It is important to note that Sudan does not manage its dam system in isolation from its regional environment. It is practically situated between two dams: the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam on its southeastern border and the Egyptian Aswan High Dam to the north. This geographical and hydrological reality makes managing Sudanese dams more complex, requiring a balance between the operation of national dams, climate change, and regional operational considerations to ensure the safety of water infrastructure and the sustainability of water resource management. This reality necessitates that Sudanese technical authorities continuously develop planning and operational tools, as any change in the operation of either system or in the hydrological conditions of the Eastern Nile Basin directly impacts the management of Sudan’s dams.

A question that has to be asked:

Here arises a professional question that I believe deserves discussion… Although the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation’s statement issued on July 16, 2026, was a balanced and important technical statement, it made no mention, directly or indirectly, of the existence of this bilateral technical mechanism or the cooperation agreement signed in 2022. This does not necessarily mean that the agreement is no longer in effect, nor does it mean that it is still being implemented in its entirety… because that requires official information that is not available to the public.

From another technical perspective… it is impossible to rule out the possibility that operational or construction considerations related to dam safety or maintenance work influenced the storage decisions during that period. These are matters that cannot be assessed or determined except based on official operational data and approved technical documents, which underscores the importance of technical transparency and making information available to specialists… especially given the exceptional circumstances the country is experiencing.

But the question remains: to what extent are the technical mechanisms established by the 2022 agreement still operational on the ground? Are the meetings of the Joint Technical Committee still being held regularly? Is the daily exchange of data continuing as stipulated in the document? Have the war in Sudan, regional tensions, and the political circumstances the region has experienced over the past three years affected the level of technical cooperation between the two countries? Another professional question arises: Has the Sudanese dam and reservoir operation system fully adapted to the changes brought about by the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), or do traditional operating methods require further development to align with the new hydrological reality? This is a legitimate technical question that deserves study and discussion, free from any political considerations, because the ultimate goal remains enhancing the efficiency of water management and minimizing risks to infrastructure and communities.

I reiterate: these are not political questions, but rather ordinary professional questions, because the success of any shared river management system depends primarily on the regular exchange of data and the continuity of communication channels between technical institutions, even during periods of disruption.

Political relations are complex. Perhaps this is why revisiting the 2022 document is more important than ever.

Has climate become a partner in dam management?

If the 2022 document represents the operational dimension, then the 73rd Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 73) represents the climate dimension. The forum was held in Addis Ababa on May 18 and 19, 2026, organized by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) through its Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and national meteorological agencies in the region. I personally addressed the outcomes of this forum in an article titled: “A Drier and Hotter Season in the Horn of Africa: Is Sudan Preparing Early for the Risks of 2026?… From Early Warning to Early Action.” The article concluded that a drier and hotter-than-usual season is likely across large parts of the Horn of Africa, including areas of the Ethiopian Highlands that supply the Blue Nile with most of its water. It also noted a high probability of an El Niño event developing during the second half of 2026, with its associated changes in rainfall patterns and temperatures.

This raises a more complex question: Can the temporary drop in Nile water levels during the second week of July be explained solely by the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)? Or were the climatic conditions highlighted in the IGAD report also contributing factors? The scientific answer suggests that the hydrological system is far too complex to be explained by a single factor. It cannot be ruled out that internal operational factors related to reservoir management, facility safety, and maintenance, alongside climatic and operational factors, contributed to this situation. However, distinguishing between these factors requires documented operational data and official technical information. The amount of water reaching Sudan has become a product of the interaction between rainfall on the Ethiopian Highlands, the operating decisions of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the management of Sudanese dams, and prevailing climatic conditions. This makes the need for accurate data, climate forecasts, and continuous operational coordination more critical than ever. Therefore, the real challenge is no longer simply predicting rainfall or monitoring discharges, but rather integrating climatic, hydrological, and operational information into a single system that helps decision-makers manage risks before they occur, not after.

Continued in Part Three and Final…

In which I will discuss how the Sudanese dam system is managed amidst war and regional challenges, and what we can learn from this experience… concluding with a proposed vision for the future.

– Specialist in Water Resources, Integrated Water Resources Management, and Transboundary Cooperation

Shortlink: https://sudanhorizon.com/?p=16154