“Not by Your Wishful Thinking, Nor …”

Mahjoub Fadl Badri
The name of Iran’s plan to confront the American–Israeli war against it is what is known as the “mosaic defence doctrine.” Its effectiveness has already been demonstrated in practice. Iran has, in fact, been preparing for such a war for a long time, anticipating it as an almost inevitable scenario.
Now that the feared moment has arrived and the United States and Israel have begun what may be described as Israel’s war, into which America has been drawn as an ally without carefully calculating the reactions and consequences—particularly the repercussions for global economies, foremost among them the American economy itself.
Iran surprised its adversaries with its resilience, its ability to absorb the initial shocks, and its rapid implementation of mosaic defence, to the extent that it astonished Donald Trump himself, as he openly acknowledged. He had assumed—wrongly—that the mere elimination of the first tier of Iranian leadership, including the Supreme Leader, would force Iran to raise the white flag. Yet what happened instead left him biting his fingers in regret and rushing to his Truth Social platform, speaking to multiple media outlets in contradictory tones each time—so much so that even some of his supporters reportedly remarked that it might have been better had he remained silent.
The American–Israeli war against Iran is not a conventional conflict whose effects are confined to the Middle East. The earthquake of war is producing successive aftershocks that may ultimately consign the Sykes–Picot Agreement—the arrangement through which France and Britain divided the Middle East after the First World War—to the archives. The present conflict may well lead to a redrawing of the region’s map.
The snowball is already growing as it rolls across the region, pushing the global economy into a crisis whose beginnings became visible within less than two weeks—and whose end no one can yet foresee. Among the dangers inherent in the war is the possibility that major powers may become directly involved.
Global markets have sensed that this war is no longer merely a regional affair to be left to Trump and Netanyahu. It has already touched the very nerve of the global economy—energy. Oil prices have risen even before Iran has moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, as widely anticipated, or even hinted at the possible closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait—both of which would place global maritime navigation at serious risk.
In a belated admission, a U.S. official stated that Trump had greatly underestimated Iran’s capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz. He had expected Iran to surrender before even contemplating such a move. Now he finds himself unable to guarantee security there or ensure safe passage for ships. Indeed, he has urged commercial vessels to show courage and continue sailing, while calling on all countries benefiting from the strait, as he described them, to contribute to protecting maritime traffic in this war—which is costing the United States more than 11 billion dollars per week.
For the first time since its creation following the October War of 1973, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has been forced to release oil from its reserves—some 400 million barrels, an unprecedented step. The United States itself has also been compelled to draw down more than 170 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserves, leaving its oil stockpiles at their lowest level since the 1980s—and the process continues.
Netanyahu’s vision of the war is framed through a religious perspective: he sees the war against Iran as the gateway to the return of the Messiah, the demolition of Al-Aqsa Mosque, the construction of the Temple, and ultimately the establishment of Greater Israel. It is therefore Netanyahu’s war—one that appeals to Christian sentiments, flatters religious Jews. It conveys embellished promises to Trump, who imagines himself as King David, opening the door to the return of the Messiah.
But sovereignty over the universe is not achieved by wishful thinking or illusions, nor by dreams, nor will fleets carry anyone to dominion over the world.
Sovereignty belongs to God. He grants it to whom He wills and removes it from whom He wills.
Iran is not Venezuela, neither in geography nor in its people, and Khamenei is not Maduro, in any sense.
And who knows—
Perhaps God will bring about, after this, a new turn of events.

Shortlink: https://sudanhorizon.com/?p=12143