The Impact of the War Against Iran on Southeast Asian Countries: Energy Security as a Model (1/2)

Dr Ahmed Abdul-Baqi
Anyone observing the current state of international relations will notice the growing attention given to energy, particularly after the Ukraine war, which has now entered its fourth year. Added to this is the competition among major powers to secure energy supplies, whose instability can undermine economic stability whenever global consumption fluctuates or is disrupted.
Such volatility directly affects states’ interests, particularly in energy security, an instability that continues to trouble decision-makers worldwide. This concern is especially significant for Southeast Asian countries, which rely heavily on energy supplies from the Middle East, most of which pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
This article highlights the impact of the war in the Middle East on energy security in several Southeast Asian countries (ASEAN), as well as the measures taken—and being considered—by some of these states to mitigate the consequences of disruptions to their energy supplies.
Energy Security: What Is the Concept of Energy Security?
The concept of energy security is relatively modern. Winston Churchill was among the first to articulate its meaning when he stated that:
“Safety and certainty in oil lie in variety, and variety alone.”
Through this statement, Churchill emphasised the importance of diversifying energy sources and avoiding dependence on a single supplier.
This idea became particularly evident during the 1973 oil embargo, when Arab oil-producing countries halted oil exports to the United States and several Western countries in order to pressure Israel to withdraw from the occupied territories. Similarly, the Iranian Revolution of 1979 highlighted the importance of energy security, demonstrating Iran’s early awareness of the profound relationship between energy, security, and international relations.
The meaning of the term energy security varies between industrialised oil-importing countries and oil-producing and exporting states.
In importing countries, energy security refers to the ability to ensure stable, uninterrupted energy supplies through diversified sources.
For exporting countries, energy security concerns reliable consumer markets, acceptable pricing levels, and adequate infrastructure capacity.
Countries of the Middle East play a central role in securing global energy supplies and maintaining stability in international energy markets. Their geographical location, combined with abundant energy resources—including oil, natural gas, renewable energy, and hydrogen—has positioned the region as a major energy hub relied upon by many countries.
Different Definitions of Energy Security
The concept of energy security has acquired multiple meanings depending on national interests and perspectives.
For example:
The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines energy security as
“the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price.”
The United Nations describes it as
a situation in which energy supplies are available at all times, in diverse forms and sufficient quantities, at reasonable and affordable prices.
In this sense, energy security issues revolve around availability, continuity of supply, and affordability, which represent the traditional understanding of the concept. This approach has historically served the interests of energy consumers, often at the expense of producing countries.
The European Commission has identified four main pillars of European energy security:
Diversification of energy sources, reducing dependence on a single supplier or country.
Demand management, promoting energy efficiency and reducing consumption wherever possible.
External supply management, through strong partnerships with key supplier countries, ensures stable access to oil and gas.
Market stability, ensuring that energy markets remain resilient and less vulnerable to crises.
The Complexity of Defining Energy Security
Despite these definitions, it remains difficult to define energy security precisely. The concept is inherently complex because producers’ and consumers’ perspectives differ significantly.
Moreover, energy security extends beyond the purely economic dimension. It also encompasses security, environmental, political, and military aspects, all of which influence energy prices and global supply dynamics.
Some analysts also view energy security as an instrument of geopolitical and geoeconomic influence, a tool for dominance and strategic control. This is evident in the current confrontation involving Iran and the resulting tensions in the Middle East, which have affected production levels and led to sharp increases in global energy prices, thereby impacting energy-importing countries worldwide.
The Impact of Military Tensions on Energy Security in Southeast Asia
With the escalation of tensions and military operations in the Middle East following the American-Israeli attacks on Iran, the consequences of the conflict have begun to extend to countries that are geographically distant but highly dependent on imported energy, particularly those in Southeast Asia.
These countries rely heavily on oil and gas imports from the Gulf region, making them vulnerable to supply disruptions and price volatility. This situation has raised serious concerns about energy security across Southeast Asia.
The problem is compounded by current uncertainty in global oil markets, driven by fears that energy supplies could be disrupted along critical maritime routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Many Southeast Asian economies depend on energy imports from the Middle East to meet rapidly growing fuel demand, which underpins economic development in the region.
Southeast Asia ranks:
Third globally in labour force size
Fourth globally in exports, accounting for approximately 7% of global exports.
4.3% of global industrial output
The region is also considered a promising investment environment, suggesting it will occupy an increasingly prominent position in the global economy.
By 2024, the combined GDP of Southeast Asian countries reached approximately $3.9 trillion, with an average annual growth rate of 4% between 2015 and 2024. The region’s population is around 683 million, making its economy the fifth-largest in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, and Germany.
The Strait of Hormuz Factor
Concerns in Southeast Asian markets are increasing regarding the possibility that military escalation could disrupt navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Approximately one-fifth of global oil trade passes through this strait, making it the primary route for transporting Gulf oil to Asian markets.
Any disruption to shipping through the strait could lead to:
Sharp increases in oil prices
Delays in oil shipments
Higher transportation and maritime insurance costs
These factors could place severe pressure on Southeast Asian economies. Countries that depend heavily on Gulf oil include:
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
Global energy estimates indicate that some of these countries—along with other Asian economies—import more than 60% of their oil needs from the Middle East, making them highly sensitive to disruptions in energy supplies and transportation routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
To be continued…

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