After President Museveni’s Victory: A Conversation with a Ugandan Friend

Ambassador Atta Al-Mannan Bakhit
The Ugandan Electoral Commission’s decision to announce President Yoweri Museveni’s victory for a seventh term was hardly surprising. He has continued to win ever since he seized power in 1986; there is no quarrel with that. Uganda is by no means an exception on a continent where many states treat democracy as a kind of priesthood that grants the president a new term regardless of what the ballot boxes contain.
On the evening when the already-known result was announced, I spoke at length with a Ugandan friend who lives in the diaspora, yet supports President Museveni on the grounds that he is “the lesser evil”, as he put it. We talked about the election and what might follow. He offered me three defences of the regime which I consider worthy of attention. I, in turn, asked him three questions; he said time would provide the answers.
I told him that the electoral process was flawed, and that even African observer missions had not dared to declare it transparent or credible—never mind the opposition’s outright condemnation of it. He replied: do not expect a president to organise an election and then lose it; that will not happen any time soon in Uganda, because the country’s political history since independence has never witnessed a peaceful transfer of power from one president to another. Here, power is seized; it is not handed over. That is what Idi Amin and Milton Obote did—and Museveni himself. He concluded by saying that we, like many African countries, need many years before we reach what countries such as Senegal, South Africa and Malawi have achieved, where the ballot box is the final arbiter.
We then touched on the president’s age. I said that President Museveni has turned eighty, and has spent half of those years as head of state. Long ago, Zuhayr ibn Abi Sulma said: “Whoever lives to eighty years—no father for you—will grow weary.” My friend responded that Museveni is not unique. Have you not seen our neighbour Emmerson Mnangagwa in Zimbabwe, Alassane Ouattara in Côte d’Ivoire, Joseph Boakai in Liberia, and Teodoro Obiang in Equatorial Guinea? All of them have passed eighty and are still winning elections and ruling. Indeed, Cameroon’s President Paul Biya—doyen of the world’s presidents—has passed ninety and has just won another term. He added that in Africa, we offer a different approach to old age: it signifies wisdom, experience and maturity. Are we not societies that revere the elder of the family?
Before I could put my questions to him, he interrupted: Ugandans agree that President Museveni has succeeded in achieving security and stability in the country to an unprecedented degree. For the first time, our country has lived for forty years without a civil war or a military coup—something that has not happened since independence. And as you know, there can be no development without security and stability. He continued: ” Have you not seen what is happening in our large neighbour, the Democratic Republic of the Congo? They hold democratic elections, and sometimes the president changes through the ballot box, yet as presidents change, wars and confrontations grow, the circle of violence and killing expands, and the country’s wealth is plundered—by the very champions of democracy themselves. So what is the point of changing regimes if it only provokes chaos, war, and the looting of national resources? He then asked: What are your pressing questions?
I said: The president has passed eighty; life and death are in God’s hands. But a sudden absence of the president, without clarity about his successor, invites disorder and ruin. Who will inherit Museveni? He said this might become clear over the next two years. I asked: is the president’s son, Muhoozi, the likely successor? He replied that this depends on the results of the parliamentary election. Muhoozi has been keen to field a large number of supporters; perhaps he wants the succession decision to be a matter for parliament. But time will tell.
I asked him about the future of the opposition leader, Bobi Wine. President Museveni has dealt with him shrewdly: he has not allowed him sufficient freedom to win, yet he has not killed him and borne the burden of his death. But if the president is succeeded by his son, Bobi Wine’s stock will rise—especially among young people, who make up more than 70 per cent of the population. He said this was a fair question: the longer Museveni remains in power, the higher Bobi Wine’s standing rises in the street. But time will tell.
Finally, I asked: what do you expect the youth—especially Generation Z—to do in response to the president’s repeated victories, given that they are a generation eager for change and renewal? He said everyone is watching the street’s reaction, particularly the young. He added: if we witness in Uganda a wave of loud protests like those seen in Tanzania, or in Mozambique, the president will be forced to make major concessions—just as his counterparts Samia Suluhu and Daniel Chapo did. He concluded: this is what everyone fears, but time will tell.
My conversation with my Ugandan friend has not yet ended. He asked me to reflect on the defences he had offered, and he would reflect on the questions I had raised. And time will tell.

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