Why Did the War in Sudan Recede So Quickly? An Analysis of the Decisive Factor

Brigadier General (Ret.) Omar Mohamed Osman
When war broke out in Sudan in mid-April 2023, pessimistic forecasts predicted a protracted conflict lasting a decade or more, akin to civil wars in neighbouring countries. Yet reality unfolded quite differently: the war’s footprint has shrunk, and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have steadily advanced across multiple states. What, then, is the decisive factor that tipped the scales?
The most plausible answer lies in the absence of genuine popular support for the militia [Rapid Support Forces, RSF]—contrasted with the SAF’s broad national backing. From the outset, Sudanese civilians reacted to the RSF by fleeing, not by embracing or collaborating with them. The “welcoming environment” the militia had banked on never materialised. Instead, a spontaneous popular allegiance emerged—to the state, the army, and the symbolism of national unity—against a project of fragmentation, looting, and extortion.
In cities and villages alike, the scene repeated: the RSF would enter, and residents would flee toward army-held areas, even if it meant seeking refuge in the wilderness or enduring life in camps. The militia never established itself in a region and forged cooperative ties with locals. It remained an alien, feared, and rejected presence wherever it went. This lack of communal support impeded the RSF’s ability to expand effectively, leaving it isolated, exhausted, and reliant on fragile supply lines, stripped of moral and political cover.
Conversely, the SAF demonstrated organisational resilience despite initial shocks. It regained strategic balance, absorbed early blows, and then seized the initiative through counteroffensives. For the first time in its history, the Sudanese army waged urban warfare—a brutal learning curve—but swiftly adapted tactics to cities’ complex terrain. It leveraged the flexibility of its Central Reserve and operational units and mobilised volunteers to reinforce frontlines.
This war will leave the SAF stronger and more adept, better prepared for future challenges. It has proven that wars are not merely battles but schools where armies learn patience, innovation, and resolve. This transformation—from initial disarray to a string of victories—epitomises that lesson.
Public consciousness also proved decisive. Attempts to rebrand the RSF as “liberators” or champions of civilian demands failed spectacularly, exposing the rebellion’s true nature: a project built on pillage and the degradation of human dignity. Regionally and internationally, perceptions began shifting as Sudan demonstrated resilience beyond its enemies’ expectations. The war’s continuation—amid the RSF’s systematic crimes in Al-Jazirah, Sennar, Darfur, and Khartoum—increasingly appeared a threat to regional stability.
While the war is not yet fully over, it has receded markedly, with the state now holding the upper hand. Significant challenges remain: decisively crushing the rebellion in Kordofan and Darfur and halting drone attacks targeting northern villages along the Nile. This will require patience, meticulous planning, and societal unity.
Ultimately, the battle’s most critical front was settled by the people—those who refused to be ruled by the gun, to see their state looted, or their homeland governed as a gangster fiefdom. Herein lies the truth: legitimacy is wrested from the hearts of the people, not the barrels of rifles. The war recedes not because the guns have fallen silent, but because the people have spoken: No to the militia.

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