US Expert Comments on Victories in North Kordofan, Says SAF Has Tactical and Strategic Advantage
Sudanhorizon – Report
Former White House advisor and US security expert on Sudanese affairs, Cameron Hudson, commented on the victories scored by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and their allies on Saturday against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia, saying that this may mean the RSF will not have the same capabilities to control El Obeid, and that it clearly demonstrated the Sudanese army’s tactical and strategic superiority over the militia.
Hudson emphasized that the capture of Bara, Umm Sayala, and four other locations was a very important victory for the army and its allies, and frankly, it was great news for the people of El Obeid. Let us pray that the recapture of Bara will facilitate the delivery of much-needed humanitarian aid to the city.
However, Hudson said this victory not only allows for the delivery of humanitarian aid to civilians in El Obeid, but also means that the likelihood of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) taking control of El Obeid, and thus putting pressure on Omdurman and Khartoum, has been significantly reduced.
He argued that it was clear that the Sudanese Armed Forces now have a tactical and strategic advantage in this war.
Hudson wrote on his X website Sunday morning. He explained that the SAF, from an air perspective, has become increasingly capable of neutralizing the RSF’s drones and has now demonstrated, in conjunction with its allied forces, a much larger ground force than before.
Strategically, he noted, this victory, along with the decisive recapture of Kurmuk and recent victories along the Chadian border, on a new front in the war to pressure the RSF’s western flank, “all indicate that conditions are currently favorable for the army.”
However, he cautioned that this does not mean the end of the war in the country, but he said he believed SAF is beginning to see the path ahead.
Hudson raised several questions, including: What do these victories mean for the ceasefire negotiations? He answered, Western diplomats should start worrying. He predicted that the SAF will now be less interested in a ceasefire settlement and will refuse to grant the Rapid Support Forces any victory at the negotiating table that they haven’t achieved on the battlefield.
He added that all these recent victories for the Sudanese Armed Forces simultaneously demonstrate that the army is the main organizer and coordinator of a large number of disparate armed factions, from the Sudan Shield and the Al-Baraa bin Malik Brigade, to the Joint Forces and the Popular Defense Forces, and other groups.
Cameroun argued that this was a broad alliance that has found common ground in a common enemy, but the heavy reliance on all these forces indicates that the Sudanese Armed Forces will have a lot of debt when the war ends. But frankly, managing this alliance becomes a worthwhile problem if it means the end of the war.
Hudson concluded that the clear result at the moment is that in the short term, the pressure on El Obeid appears to have eased. Let us hope that aid will return soon, that the Rapid Support Forces will be pushed back towards the advancing Sudanese Armed Forces from the west, and that this war will end soon.
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