The United States and the Twelve-Day War

The United States and the Twelve-Day Wa

By: Ezz El-Din Abu Jamal
Has the United States succeeded in employing the strategy of “Tied Hands”?
Iran and Israel have been engaged for decades in an intelligence war resembling a cold war in many of its features, including ground, maritime, cyber, and proxy confrontations. Israel has relied heavily on intelligence operations targeting Iranian interests, military leaders, and nuclear scientists. In 2018, Israel conducted a complex intelligence operation that yielded tens of thousands of documents containing information about Iran’s nuclear program.
Tehran accuses Israel of orchestrating a series of assassinations and bombings, particularly after the killing of Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. drone strike in January 2020. This event was followed by several operations, including:
The assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in late 2020,
The explosion at the Natanz nuclear facility in 2021,
The killing of Revolutionary Guard Colonel Sayyad Khodaei in Tehran in 2022,
The drone attacks on the Isfahan military facility in 2023,
And most recently, the February 2024 explosions that struck gas pipelines connecting southern and northern Iran.
Israel is also accused of orchestrating dozens of cyberattacks.
On the other side, Israel accuses Iran of planning and executing attacks on Israeli interests worldwide. In 2018, German authorities arrested two Iranians for collecting intelligence on Israeli targets. In 2021, India blamed Iran’s Quds Force for a bombing near the Israeli embassy in New Delhi. In 2023, Israel’s foreign minister accused Iran of attempting to bomb its embassy in Azerbaijan.
There have also been numerous attacks on ships partially or fully owned by Israelis, including:
An oil tanker attack in the Arabian Sea in 2021,
Another attack off the coast of Oman in 2022,
A drone attack on a commercial ship off India’s western coast in October 2023.
Cyberattacks are also on the rise, with Israeli reports indicating that 3,380 cyberattacks were launched in 2023 — a 43% increase from 2022.
Escalating to Confrontation
The dynamic interaction between Israel and Iran usually begins with Israeli offensive initiatives aimed at consistently targeting Iran’s infrastructure and regional allies. These actions provoke chains of reactions and counter-reactions, creating a strategic environment shaped by continuous tit-for-tat measures.
Israel’s strategy is to boost its regional influence and gradually weaken Iran without provoking a direct war that could drain its resources and provoke international backlash. This aligns with the U.S.-Israeli alliance, which aims to discourage major regional escalations.
In contrast, Iran aims to deter Israel and assert its power through carefully chosen responses. Its strategies involve indirect tactics such as proxy warfare, cyber capabilities, and diplomatic initiatives to balance Israeli influence.
By avoiding direct conflict, Iran protects itself from exposing military weaknesses and capitalises on its regional alliances, even as its proxy networks have recently experienced significant erosion.
Meanwhile, the United States functions as a mediator and balancing force. Despite its strong alliance with Israel, Washington seeks to avoid an all-out conflict that could undermine its strategic interests and destabilise the region, where it acts as both a shield and vigilant guardian. Its primary role is deterrence, de-escalation, and offering political and strategic counsel to Israel — while also imposing limits on Israel’s military intervention to prevent uncontrollable conflict and preserve regional balance.
The Strategy of “Tied Hands”
This is where the “Tied Hands Strategy” comes in — a concept in foreign policy traceable to the work of Thomas Schelling. It involves a leader or state deliberately placing constraints on their actions to signal a commitment to a particular stance, thereby strengthening their negotiating position.
On Israel’s side, the close alliance with the U.S. reflects this strategy. While the U.S. supports Israel and calls for restraint, it remains wary of being dragged into undesired wars.
Similarly, Iran understands that entering a full-scale war would jeopardise its national interests.
Through this lens, the U.S. maintains control over the balance of power, allowing it to safeguard its global strategic gains through the gateway of the Iran-Israel conflict — a conflict in which both sides are locked in combat with their hands tied.
Conclusion
In this prolonged intelligence and proxy war, Iran and Israel wage their conflict under constraints deliberately maintained — by themselves and by U.S. influence — to avoid an open war while pursuing strategic objectives. The United States, by managing these limits, plays the central role of balancing power and preserving its interests in the Middle East, letting the two adversaries fight…with tied hands.

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