The False Control and the Fabricated Percentage!

Dr. Muzammil Abu Al-Qasim
The janjaweed’s “Musaylimahs” (plural of Musaylimah meaning liars) like to claim that their militias currently control 80% of Sudan’s territory. But is their claim valid?
Do the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militias really control 80% of the country’s land?
Let’s use numbers to refute this claim and determine its accuracy, as numbers don’t lie or embellish the truth.
First, let’s overlook that the alleged areas of control include citizens’ homes, residential neighbourhoods, service centres, and state institutions, as well as cities and villages where there are no military garrisons. Let’s also ignore that occupying these areas cannot be considered true control by the militias and that supposed control over any state is incomplete unless all military garrisons are occupied. The army is entirely expelled from the state’s borders.
Using this last criterion, we note that the RSF militias control (if we consider the horrific crimes they commit on the ground as “control”) only four states: West Darfur, East Darfur, Central Darfur, and South Darfur.
On the other hand, the army controls eight states: the Northern Nile River (except for a small pocket in Hajar al-Asal), the Red Sea, Kassala, Gedaref, the White Nile, the Blue Nile, and South Kordofan.
The army has a significant presence in North Darfur, specifically in the state (and regional) capital, Al-Fashir, Wadi Ambar, and other areas in the state, such as Tina and others.
The army also has a strong presence in West Kordofan (the 22nd Division in Babanousa and the Heglig Brigade), and a strong presence in North Kordofan (the 5th Camel Corps Division, the 10th Division in Abu Jubeiha, the garrison in Abu Karshola, and the garrison in En Nuhoud). The army still retains all its garrisons in South Kordofan, including the 14th Division in Kadugli and the 54th Brigade in Delling.
The Army has a strong presence in Khartoum, where it has maintained control over all its major garrisons, starting with the General Command, the Signal Corps, the Armored Corps, the Ordnance Corps, the Engineers, Wadi Seidna, Hattab, Kadero, and Al Ailfun, losing only the Jebel Aulia garrison in the capital.
If we calculate the area of the four states controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) rebels—Central Darfur (34,000 square kilometres), West Darfur (23,000 square kilometres), South Darfur (72,000 square kilometres), and East Darfur (55,000 square kilometres)—and compare it to the total area of Sudan (1,886,000 square kilometres), we find that the militias control less than 10% of the country’s total area.
If we do the same calculation for the army and consider the areas it fully controls—Northern State (349,000 square kilometres), Nile River State (122,000 square kilometres), Red Sea State (219,000 square kilometres), Kassala (37,000 square kilometres), Gedaref (75,000 square kilometres), White Nile State (40,000 square kilometres), Blue Nile State (46,000 square kilometres), and South Kordofan (80,000 square kilometres, noting that a part of this state is controlled by the SPLM in Kauda specifically)—we find that the army controls about 52% of the country’s area.
If we add the areas controlled by the army in North Darfur, North, South, and West Kordofan, Khartoum, Gezira, and Sennar, the percentage rises to around 70% of the country’s total area.
If we then add the entire area of North Darfur (296,000 square kilometres) to the RSF’s control, ignoring the army’s control over its capital, Al-Fashir, and disregarding the presence of joint forces in Wadi Howar, Wadi Ambar, Tina, and parts of Jebel Marra, the RSF’s control would increase to approximately 25% of the country’s total area!
And if we exclude North Darfur State and calculate the entire area of Gezira State (24,000 square kilometres) as controlled by the militias—despite the army’s presence in the west of the state (Managil locality and other areas)—the percentage of the territory under militia control would drop to around 11%.
If we add North Kordofan and Gezira States together to the militia’s control, the total area will reach approximately 390,000 square kilometres, roughly the size of the Red Sea State alone (350,000 square kilometres). In this case, the percentage of territory under militia control would rise to about 21%.
If we ignore the army’s presence in all its major garrisons in Khartoum and its complete control over most parts of Omdurman, and instead add the entire Khartoum State to the militia’s territory, and consider it as fully controlled by them, including the entire area of North Darfur (disregarding the army’s and joint forces’ presence in various parts of the state, including the capital, Al-Fashir), along with Gezira State and Sennar State in their entirety, the percentage of land under militia control would rise to just under 29% of Sudan’s total area, which is less than one-third of the country’s total area.