Sudan’s Earthquake… Are We Approaching the Formation of the Largest Bloc? (1/2)

Obeid A. Murawih
Sudan’s political and societal forces appear to have reached a state of paralysis and intellectual as well as programmatic exhaustion. Despite the daily unfolding of deepening crises, there is little evidence of coherent proposals capable of guiding the country towards the future. Instead, most actors remain consumed by internal divisions and inter-group conflicts rooted in revisiting the past and its grievances, with few attempting to chart a forward-looking path that can attract broad support.
Perhaps the closest analogy to what Sudan has experienced since 2011 is that of a “social volcanic earthquake”—a deep, long-standing upheaval within Sudanese society. Its initial impact has already occurred, yet its aftershocks continue to reverberate, with different segments colliding and fragmenting further, or merging to form new groupings whose final shape has not yet fully emerged.
It can be said, however, that the outlines of a “largest bloc” are beginning to take shape, even if they have not yet become clearly defined.
A Geological Analogy
In geological terms, earthquakes occur when tectonic plates suddenly slip beneath the Earth’s surface, releasing vast amounts of energy in seismic waves that shake the crust. This leads to ground tremors, surface ruptures, landslides, altered river courses, and sometimes tsunamis—often accompanied by widespread destruction. In some cases, even the geographical map changes: land expands in one area, shrinks in another, or becomes uninhabitable.
Applying this analogy to societies, one may argue that Sudan’s “tectonic shift” culminated in 2011, when a third of the country’s territory broke away to form an independent state. Since then, aftershocks have continued to surface in varying degrees, as seen in 2013 and 2019.
However, the most significant rupture occurred on 15 April 2023, producing deep fractures that continue to shape Sudanese society.
Historical Roots of Fragmentation
The Sudan, which took its modern geographical form in 1821, was never socially homogeneous. Neither the Mahdist state that followed the Turco-Egyptian period, nor the subsequent British colonial rule, succeeded in forging a unified cultural identity or cohesive national consciousness.
On the contrary, both periods contributed to sharp societal divisions and the isolation of vast regions, maintaining cultural separation and marginalisation. As a result, communities in eastern, southern, and western Sudan often remained inward-looking, feeling that the post-independence national state neither represented them nor addressed their aspirations.
The political elites who inherited power from colonial rule made little effort to construct a unifying national project capable of bringing these diverse communities together—either culturally or economically. Nor did they adopt a development model that utilised Sudan’s vast resources to drive economic progress, expand knowledge, and physically connect the country through infrastructure such as roads and railways—at a time when international funding for such projects was readily available.
Instead, these elites became entrenched in endless struggles over central power, oscillating between:
A fragmented and ineffective form of “democracy”, and
Authoritarian rule following military coups, which were in turn overthrown by popular uprisings—such as those of October 1964, April 1985, and April 2019.
Meanwhile, the country’s peripheral regions were largely neglected.
From Limited Pluralism to Fragmentation
At independence in 1956, Sudan’s political landscape was dominated by two main currents:
The Independence camp, led by the Umma Party and supported by the Ansar sect,
The Union with Egypt camp, represented by parties that later merged into the Democratic Unionist Party under the Khatmiyya sect.
Alongside them existed smaller parties such as the Republican Party and the Communist Party, while southern Sudan had its own political movements, including the Liberal Party and the Federal Party.
Within a decade, additional ideological and regional movements emerged, including:
The Beja Congress in eastern Sudan,
The Darfur Renaissance Front in western Sudan,
Political activism in the Nuba Mountains.
Seventy years after independence, the number of political parties and armed movements has multiplied many times over. Instead of competition centred on programmes and ideas, fragmentation has deepened—even within the same ideological currents.
The Umma Party, the Unionists, the Communists, and the Islamists all experienced internal splits. This pattern extended to armed movements, which initially took up arms against central authority for specific causes but later fragmented repeatedly, multiplying in what the author describes as an almost “amoebic” manner over time.
The April 2023 Turning Point
Against this backdrop, the war that erupted on 15 April 2023 represents the largest tectonic shift yet, producing the deepest fractures in Sudan’s modern history. It is unlikely that Sudan will return to its previous state.
Political, intellectual, and social forces have reached a point of what might be termed “creative exhaustion”, where internal divisions have become so entrenched that even previously unified entities struggle to reconcile with their own fragmented parts.
In this context, the broad current that has rallied around the Sudanese Armed Forces in what is described as an existential battle is the closest to forming a unified bloc.
The Emerging “Largest Bloc”
The emerging features of this bloc suggest a non-ideological national current, bringing together individuals from diverse intellectual and regional backgrounds:
From the political right, left, and centre,
From western, eastern, southern, northern, and central Sudan.
What unites them is a central idea: that the nation must take precedence above all other considerations, and that Sudan’s future should be determined by its own people—particularly its youth—who deserve a country they can take pride in.
To be continued…

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