“Sudanhorizon” Republishes the Article Whose Author Predicted the Current Events in the Middle East Last Year

From “Sudanhorizon”:
Nearly a year ago, specifically in September 2021, Ambassador Badr Al-Din Abdullah, Sudan’s former ambassador to Germany, wrote an article titled “Has the Middle East Reached the Point of No Return?” on the trajectory of developments in the Middle East. The Sudanhorizon news website published the article in October to mark the anniversary of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation.
Given that the author’s predictions have largely materialised, we have decided to republish the article to deepen our understanding of what is unfolding in our region. Here is what the article said:
Has the Middle East Reached the Point of No Return?

By Ambassador Badr Al-Din Abdullah
In the memoirs of Republican U.S. Senator Paul Findley (1931–2019), published under the title America in Peril—referring to the danger posed by U.S. foreign policy’s bias toward Israel at the expense of American national interests—it is noted that the late President Yasser Arafat, as part of Findley’s efforts to achieve a just peace in the Middle East, presented him with a proposal to be delivered to the Israeli side. The proposal stated:
“If Israel agrees to an independent Palestine in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, with a corridor connecting them, the new Palestine will live in peace and establish de facto economic relations with Israel.”
When Findley conveyed the proposal to the Israeli side, then-Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin responded:
“We will never, ever give up a single inch of Judea and Samaria [the West Bank].”
Findley further noted that at no point in the history of the Jewish state did Israeli officials engage in negotiations with good intentions. Rather, they prolonged talks indefinitely to buy time to expand settlements and ultimately erase Palestine.
Indeed, anyone looking at today’s map of the West Bank can see that these words have been implemented literally on the ground. Settlements have fragmented the West Bank into isolated patches, easily engulfed by Israel—an effort now accelerated by its unprovoked expansion of the War from Gaza to the West Bank. A senior PLO official recently stated that Arafat admitted before his poisoning and death that “the Oslo Peace Accords were a grand deception.”
Israel’s claimed commitment to peace and stability in the Middle East is nothing more than a tactical manoeuvre. It seizes or creates opportunities to expand gradually, pursuing its strategic objective of becoming the largest and most powerful nation in the region—geographically, militarily, and economically—with unrelenting and boundless Western support.
In addition to its systematic destruction of life and infrastructure in Gaza, now entering its second year, the Israeli government has violated its peace treaty with Egypt by occupying the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egypt-Gaza border. Israel was emboldened by Egypt’s tepid protest over the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria and later the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran, which prompted Iran to retaliate twice with missile attacks deep inside Israel—a historic first in terms of the scale of strikes on Israeli territory.
Israel has since escalated by opening a new front in Lebanon, turning Hezbollah’s support for the resistance in Gaza into a full-scale war. It assassinated several senior Hezbollah figures, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and bombarded Lebanese territory broadly.
Israel is now attempting a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, blatantly disregarding UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and targeting UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon), despite international protests.
In a similarly defiant move, Israel denied UN Secretary-General António Guterres access to Gaza, labelling him persona non grata—an unprecedented breach in international relations. Israel had earlier ignored a Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and has shown contempt for the rulings of the International Court of Justice. It also dismissed the recommendation by ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister, labelling it “antisemitic.”
The world stands on the brink of a much larger conflict, particularly if the Israeli military responds to Iranian missile strikes by targeting its nuclear or oil facilities. Israel’s attack on Yemen’s Hodeidah port triggered the Houthis (Ansar Allah) to escalate their attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and launch long-range drones and ballistic missiles deep into Israeli territory.

The Present Threat
The danger of War expanding into even wider areas of the region is no longer far-fetched. Reports of Israel’s expansionist plans to penetrate Syrian territory and advance northward toward Turkey have prompted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to warn against Israeli encroachment on Turkish sovereignty in Anatolia via operations in Syria and alliances with Kurdish insurgent groups.
In a serious development, the Turkish government convened a closed parliamentary session that lasted over ten hours to discuss the national security threat.
This follows statements by Netanyahu, who—emboldened by Israel’s military successes against Hezbollah—proclaimed his intent to “reorder” the Middle East in alignment with Israel’s expansionist strategy. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s far-right ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have continually expressed explicit calls for genocide against Palestinians and the full annexation of the West Bank, along with Lebanon and Syria. These statements reveal the true nature of this colonial, racist, and expansionist entity, emboldened by the Western cover and enabled by Arab and Islamic paralysis—with only a few exceptions.
All of these indicators suggest that the Middle East has indeed entered a point of no return, and the region will never be the same after the “Al-Aqsa Flood.” Peace and stability are becoming increasingly elusive. Previous policies pursued by regional states will no longer be effective under the current volatile conditions. Nations that believe they are far removed from the fire must reconsider—wars, once ignited, are unpredictable and often lead to surprises that reshape the course of history.
In this context, the words of renowned German general and military strategist Carl von Clausewitz (1780–1831) in his seminal book On War may prove true:
“War is a decisive force in shaping the course of history and civilisations. It is the critical moment of transition from one historical era to another.”
By engaging in genocide against the Palestinian people and persistently violating international laws and norms, Israel has rightfully earned the label of a rogue state. No government or entity can be a credible partner with it in any serious political process or treaty. Israel has shown its readiness to break every agreement and cross every red line, driven by its expansionist ambitions.

Shortlink: https://sudanhorizon.com/?p=6066