Sudan Will Surprise You!

Eng. Munjid Ibrahim Yousif
I was inspired by the powerful presentation delivered by Dr Wajdi Mirghani, Chairman of the Exporters’ Union and Sudanese agricultural expert, on 11 November this year in Port Sudan at the conference on the future and development of Sudanese exports after the war. In that presentation, the Chairman of the Exporters’ Union predicted that Sudan’s exports could reach USD 16 billion within five years. In this article, we analyse and support that strong argument — and indeed, we argue that USD 16 billion is a modest figure for a country with natural resources as vast as Sudan’s.
Introduction
Sudan is passing through a delicate moment in its modern history. The engines of war are nearing a halt, and a new phase of national recovery and reconstruction is opening up. Recovery after conflict is never easy — but it is also not impossible for a country like Sudan and a people like the resilient Sudanese, who have endured many trials and emerged stronger every time. This is especially true if there is political will for recovery, sound economic planning, strong popular and international support, and a clear post-war vision. Above all, recovery requires opportunities for social peace, an end to mutual accusations of betrayal, and acceptance of the “other” within a common national framework shaped by Sudanese patriotism.
First: The Nature and Impact of the War
The Sudanese war that erupted in 2023 inflicted severe infrastructure damage, displaced millions, undermined social stability, and weakened economic and financial institutions. Yet the country has not lost its fundamental strengths. The Sudanese economy has indeed lost around 50% of its capacity, and the local currency has fallen to less than half its previous value. However, due to the nature, structure, and resilience of Sudan’s economy, its potential has not been entirely wasted.
Sudan still possesses strong elements that can enable it to recover in a relatively short period — provided these resources are used scientifically and transparently.
Second: Available Economic Opportunities
We must clearly understand that the Sudanese economy is flexible, diverse, and largely people-driven, rather than state-driven or centrally controlled. The popular sector is still the dominant actor. The economy incorporates agriculture, livestock, mining, and manufacturing.
It is also important to note that Sudan’s trade deficit, even in the worst years, has not exceeded USD 6 billion — a small figure by the standards of national deficits, and one that could be easily offset by remittances from Sudanese expatriates.
This does not mean that the war causes no economic crisis — it certainly exists. However, recovery in economies like Sudan’s tends to be easier and recovery periods shorter, contrary to predictions that Sudan would need ten years. This is incorrect. Sudan’s economy will surprise you: it will recover, God willing, in three years or less, for the following reasons:
1. Diversity of Natural Resources
Sudan has vast fertile agricultural lands — nearly 200 million feddans — of which only a small portion is utilised (no more than 25%), and the actual productive output is equivalent to only 10% of that land area. In effect, Sudan today produces what neighbouring countries would produce from 10 million feddans.
Sudan also has abundant water resources thanks to the Nile and its tributaries, along with seasonal rains in many regions. Total water resources exceed 400 billion cubic metres, enough to cultivate at least 100 million feddans — in addition to the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer, one of the largest in the world.
2. Livestock Wealth
Sudan’s livestock exceeds 100 million head — cattle, camels, and sheep — making the country a major potential exporter of meat (especially to Egypt and Gulf countries), hides, and dairy products, particularly as global demand for halal meat increases.
3. Minerals and Gold
Sudan possesses huge gold reserves (one of the top three African producers), with official production around 65 tonnes annually, and actual production exceeding 100 tonnes, with a real value of over USD 10 billion. Other minerals include chromium, iron, copper, manganese, and uranium.
This sector could provide significant revenue if mining and export operations were organised and if peace and stability were restored.
4. Strategic Geographic Location
Sudan is a link between North and Central Africa. It is a genuine gateway for North African exports — especially Egyptian exports — to landlocked African countries. As Egypt prepares to increase its exports to Africa, Sudan is set to become the primary gateway, qualifying it to become a major logistical and commercial hub serving regional and international trade.
Third: Opportunities for Rapid Recovery
— Restructuring the Economy
Sudan can restart by modernising its economy, moving away from rent-based revenue and adopting development policies centred on agriculture, agro-processing, and livestock production.
Structural reforms are needed, including:
reviewing the subsidy system and ensuring support reaches those who deserve it
reforming investment laws to attract foreign investment
offering guarantees and incentives for investors
— Attracting Regional and International Investment
With abundant land, water, and labour, Sudan is an attractive destination for productive investment. Nearly 50% of its land is cultivable. Strong investment partnerships can be built with Gulf countries, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, and others.
Sudan needs investment of around USD 200 billion over ten years to develop the country and harness its resources — and the return on investment in Sudan is among the highest globally.
— Economic Integration with Neighbouring Countries
Cooperation with neighbouring states — Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and especially Egypt — offers major opportunities for joint projects strengthening stability and development.
Economic integration with Egypt would give Sudan access to:
abundant Egyptian energy
advanced infrastructure, logistics, and ports
major industrial capacity
raw materials and skilled labour
All of this offers Sudan great opportunities if integrated effectively with the Egyptian economy.
Fourth: Domestic and International Challenges
The need for comprehensive political stability
Comprehensive social peace is essential for attracting investment
Reform of state institutions and real guarantees for investors
Incentives for local investors, since reconstruction will largely depend on Sudanese businesspeople
Addressing war impacts: return of displaced persons, reconstruction, health and education support
Fighting corruption and ensuring resource transparency
Rebuilding trust with the international community and financial institutions
Conclusion
Sudan stands at the threshold of a new phase. It carries wounds and destruction — but also the seeds of revival. Beneath its soil lie immense, still-unexplored blessings for its people and the entire region.
Sudan’s diverse and resilient popular economy prevented total collapse during this devastating war, giving it the ability to recover quickly and sustainably — provided reconstruction is grounded in a truly national vision and genuine consensus among active forces.
Post-war is not an end — it is a promising beginning, if available opportunities are wisely used and obstacles overcome.
Sudan will surprise you with a rapid recovery — in less than three years after the war stops.

Shortlink: https://sudanhorizon.com/?p=8847