Dr Al-Mufti to Sudanhorizon: Ground Subsidence at the GERD Was Expected, and Government Must Prepare for Any Partial or Total Collapse

Sudanhorizon – Hala Hamza

International water expert Dr Ahmed Al-Mufti has stated that recently reported information concerning ground subsidence at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the leakage of 41 billion cubic metres of water from the reservoir was expected.

Speaking to Sudanhorizon, Dr Al-Mufti said that reports circulating online indicated that a study involving experts from Egypt, China, India and the United States confirmed that satellite imagery and geological analyses had revealed unexpected seismic activity and ground subsidence in the vicinity of the dam. He added that large quantities of water were reported to have leaked from the dam’s reservoir into underground layers and geological faults, estimated at around 41 billion cubic metres during the various filling stages. Ground subsidence of up to 40 millimetres at the dam site was also reportedly detected.

Dr Al-Mufti explained that he had anticipated leakage occurring in two phases. The first was prior to the commencement of negotiations, when prior notification should have been demanded. Such notification, he said, would have granted Sudan and Egypt the right to receive all studies, maps and information relating to the dam’s construction before work began. Based on this information, both countries could have assessed the dam’s structural safety. However, prior notification was not provided, meaning Sudan and Egypt were unable to examine the dam’s safety and, in effect, relinquished a right guaranteed to them under international law and the 1902 Agreement between Sudan and Ethiopia.

He continued that the second phase, in which the issue was raised, occurred when the three parties formed an international panel, which issued its report in 2013. The report indicated that the dam’s safety measures were inadequate and required completion by Ethiopia. Accordingly, paragraph 8 of the 2015 Declaration of Principles on the GERD called on Ethiopia to complete the necessary safety measures. Dr Al-Mufti stated that this has not yet been done.

Dr Al-Mufti criticised Sudan for failing to clearly declare its position on the matter and for limiting its demands to a legal agreement governing operational rules and data exchange, without insisting on the dam’s safety. He urged the Sudanese government to immediately begin emergency preparations to address any potential total or partial collapse of the dam, citing Egypt’s Toshka Canal as an example of precautionary infrastructure. He also called for obliging Ethiopia to provide compensation for all damages caused by the dam, as well as any future harm, in accordance with international law

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