A Drier and Hotter Season in the Horn of Africa… Is Sudan Preparing Early for the Risks of 2026?

Dr. Ammar Abkar Abdullah
In light of the accelerating climate changes the world is witnessing, the importance of seasonal climate information is increasing as a fundamental tool for supporting planning and decision-making, especially in countries that rely heavily on rainfall and natural resources. In this context, the outcomes of the 73rd Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 73), held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from May 18–19, 2026, carried important messages for Sudan and other countries in the region regarding the nature of the upcoming rainy season and its potential challenges.
The forum was organized by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) through its Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and national meteorological and climate agencies in the Horn of Africa. Representatives from the water, agriculture, energy, health, and disaster management sectors, as well as regional and international organizations, participated in the event. Participating countries included Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi.
Worrying Outlook for June-September 2026: The forum concluded that there is a high probability of a drier and hotter-than-usual season from June to September 2026 across large parts of the Horn of Africa, a period that represents the main rainy season in several countries of the region. Forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of below-average rainfall in South Sudan, parts of Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti, Eritrea, and western Kenya. The technical report explained that the highest probability of drought is concentrated in parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and some southern regions of Sudan, where the probability of reduced rainfall exceeds 60%, reaching nearly 80% in some areas of Ethiopia and South Sudan.
The report divided the affected areas into several probability zones, with “Zone 1” showing the highest risk levels, with an 80% probability of below-average rainfall, compared to only 15% for near-average rainfall and 5% for above-average rainfall. Other areas showed drought probabilities at levels of 55% and 45%, reflecting a general regional trend towards a drier season. Conversely, the report indicated limited probabilities of above-average rainfall in parts of northern Sudan, the southern coast of Somalia, and some other local areas, but these chances remained relatively weak, ranging only between 40% and 50%.

Reduced Prospects for Heavy Rainfall and its Impact on Water Resources:
Among the important indicators in the report is the decline in the probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 500 mm in parts of southern Sudan, the Ethiopian Highlands, and southern Sudan, with a decrease ranging from 20 to 50 percentage points compared to usual climatic averages. This indicator has direct implications for:
-The replenishment of seasonal rivers;
– Dam and reservoir storage;
– Rainfed agriculture;
– Natural pastures;
– Hydroelectric power generation.
The report also indicated that only some areas in South Sudan might experience a slight increase in the probability of exceeding this rainfall threshold, ranging from 5 to 30 percentage points.

High temperatures and El Niño probability:
The report further indicated expectations of above-average temperatures across most of the Horn of Africa, with a high probability of hotter conditions in northern Sudan, most of South Sudan, and Ethiopia. According to the report’s temperature breakdown, some areas recorded a probability of up to 85% for above-average temperatures, while others recorded probabilities of 75% and 60% for hotter than usual conditions. This climatic situation is linked to the anticipated development of the El Niño phenomenon during the second half of 2026.
According to the forum, the probability of El Niño developing during the period May–July 2026 is 82%, with a 96% probability of it continuing into the winter of 2026/2027.
The report also indicated that current conditions are very similar to those of 1997 and 2023, two strong El Niño years that saw a significant decrease in rainfall across large parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya.

What does this mean for Sudan?
These projections represent an important message for Sudanese policymakers, especially given the current economic and humanitarian conditions and the dependence of large segments of the population on rain-fed agriculture, livestock herding, and natural resources.
Decreased rainfall and rising temperatures could lead to: a decline in rain-fed agricultural production; increased pressure on surface and groundwater resources; deterioration of rangelands and increased rates of pastoral displacement; a greater likelihood of fires and droughts; increased demand for water and energy; and exacerbated vulnerability in communities affected by conflicts and humanitarian crises. The potential for a delayed start to the rainy season in parts of Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia adds another challenge to agricultural planning and water management, particularly in areas reliant on traditional seasonal agriculture.

The Eastern Nile and the Challenges of Climate and Water Coordination:
Given these alarming climate indicators, the importance of strengthening mechanisms for exchanging hydrological and climatic information among the countries of the Eastern Nile Basin, especially Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt, becomes paramount.
This would contribute to improved management of shared water resources and mitigate the risks associated with climate variability, drought, and floods. Furthermore, there is a growing need to enhance technical coordination regarding the operation of the basin’s main dams and reservoirs, including those in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt, to ensure optimal water use and improve the efficiency of management during critical periods. With forecasts indicating declining rainfall and rising temperatures, the exchange of daily and seasonal data related to rainfall, flows, storage, and operations becomes essential.
A strategy, not just technical cooperation, is needed, especially since managing dams during droughts requires a high level of transparency and regional coordination.

From “Early Warning” to “Early Action”:
One of the most important messages that emerged from the forum was the call to move from the concept of “early warning” to “early warning linked to proactive action.” This means translating climate information into practical measures that reduce losses and support institutional and community preparedness.
For Sudan, this requires: strengthening climate and hydrological monitoring systems; supporting the General Authority of Meteorology and the water monitoring units of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation; developing dam and reservoir management and operation plans; expanding water harvesting programs; supporting climate-smart agriculture; strengthening early warning systems for disasters and droughts; and raising the level of regional coordination in managing shared water resources.

Climate and National Security:
Climate change has become part of the equation for national security and economic and social stability, and climate information is no longer just specialized technical reports. Countries that invest in climate services, early warning, and proactive planning will be better able to protect their societies and economies and reduce the impacts of climate shocks. Therefore, the forum’s outcomes are important for Sudan to reconsider its water management, agriculture, and climate adaptation policies, and to move towards building a more resilient system, better prepared for future risks, based on science, regional coordination, and investment in national knowledge and capabilities.

Shortlink: https://sudanhorizon.com/?p=14131