Will Egypt and Saudi Arabia Step In?

By Eng. Monjid Ibrahim Yousif
Those following the rapid and escalating developments between Sudan and the UAE know that trade relations between the two countries are set to enter a difficult phase in the coming days. This follows Sudan’s announcement that the UAE is now considered a hostile state and the severing of diplomatic ties with it. The UAE then banned the passage and landing of aircraft, as well as maritime navigation, between it and Sudan.
Observers of Sudan’s trade relations will be aware that the UAE is Sudan’s largest trading partner. Analysing the statistical report issued by the Central Bank of Sudan on Sudan’s foreign trade for 2022 (the year before the war) reveals that Sudan’s total exports for that year amounted to USD 4.4 billion, of which the UAE accounted for USD 2 billion – representing 48% of Sudan’s exports.
However, breaking down this figure shows that Sudan’s gold exports in that year amounted to 34.5 tonnes, with 100% of that going to the UAE. This means that all of Sudan’s gold exports went to the UAE, in addition to other goods worth no more than USD 540,000.
On the import side for the same year, Sudan’s imports 2022 amounted to USD 11.1 billion. The UAE’s share of that was USD 2.3 billion, of which 80% were petroleum products imported by Sudan – with a total value of USD 2.9 billion (diesel: USD 1.05 billion; petrol: USD 380 million; asphalt: USD 8.5 million; natural gas: USD 65 million). Around 80% of these petroleum products came via or from the UAE.
This means that Sudan effectively exported gold to the UAE worth USD 2 billion and imported petroleum products and other goods from the UAE worth USD 2.1 billion – making the trade balance essentially even, with the UAE being a major trade partner for Sudan.
With the unfolding events, it is likely that the UAE will use this substantial trade relationship – especially in the petroleum sector – as a pressure card. This brings us to the question of alternatives.
The next largest Arab trading partner for Sudan after the UAE is Egypt. In the same year (2022), trade between Egypt and Sudan amounted to USD 1.4 billion, with 55% in Egypt’s favour and 45% in Sudan’s favour – also a relatively balanced trade relationship. Moreover, this trade is diverse: Egypt imports 100% of its camels and 75% of its cattle from Sudan, while most of Sudan’s sheep exports go to the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia.
Egypt could fill the gap that will arise from this political dispute with the UAE – especially since Egypt’s exports have been growing in 2025 and are expected to exceed USD 50 billion by year’s end. Whether it’s covering Sudan’s sugar deficit (over one million tonnes annually), supplying wheat through contracts with the General Authority for Supply Commodities (as Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer), or providing food products in which Egypt excels, such as flour, pasta, and other processed foods – the potential is there.
The main challenge remains petroleum products. While Egypt faces a significant shortfall in this area, it could still secure supplies through transit arrangements, contracting with third parties on Sudan’s behalf, or – most likely – sourcing petroleum products directly from Saudi Arabia in exchange for hard commodities, particularly gold.
Therefore, Egypt and Saudi Arabia should be ready to bridge the trade gap that will result from the Sudan–UAE political rift.
Egypt, in particular, should be prepared to fill this gap, especially considering that in normal circumstances, Sudan imports goods worth more than USD 10 billion annually. Egypt could potentially claim 50% of that share in exchange for imports from Sudan, including live livestock and other hard commodities such as gold, cotton, and sesame.
May God protect Egypt and Sudan, and long live the alliance of the Nile Valley peoples.
*Economic expert in Egyptian–Sudanese trade relations

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