Shrinking US Engagement in Africa: Concerns for the Continent and Impact on Sudan

Cairo – Sudanhorizon – Sabah Musa
In implementation of his new policies, US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering to bring down US engagement in Africa, which would mean ceding of significant diplomatic space to other powers rapidly expanding in the continent at Washington’s expense.
Reducing Engagement
International media outlets have reported over the past two days that the United States may be reducing its diplomatic engagement in Africa and closing State Department offices dealing with climate change, democracy, and human rights, according to an executive order under review by the White House. According to an undated State Department memo reported by “The New York Times”, the Trump administration is considering plans to close 10 embassies and 17 consulates, and to reduce or consolidate the staff of several other foreign missions. The newspaper reported that six of the embassies proposed for closure are located in sub-Sahara Africa: the Central African Republic, Eritrea, Gambia, Lesotho, the Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan. The current Africa office is also expected to be closed and replaced by the Office of the Special Envoy for African Affairs, which is expected to report to the White House Homeland Security Council instead of the State Department.
Concerns and Questions
The proposed new cuts have raised concerns that the United States will cede vital diplomatic space to Russia and China, including in regions of the world where Washington has a greater presence than Moscow and Beijing. This could jeopardize US national security, including intelligence gathering. The proposed cuts also raise questions about the repercussions of the US withdrawal on the African continent. They include whether this withdrawal will affect US intelligence and military cooperation in combating terrorism in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, who will fill the US vacuum, and whether the withdrawal will open the door to new axes of influence. Furthermore, the most important question is the impact of this US withdrawal on the Sudan.
Impact on the Opposition
For his part, Sudanese journalist and political analyst Mohamed Mohamed Khair believes that all the challenges that the Sudan has been facing since 2019, following the demise of the Bashir regime, up until the current war, were directly influenced by the US State Department. Khair told Sudanhorizon that the US State Department is among five circles that influence foreign decision-making, and that it is the weakest of these circles in terms of influence. He added that the State Department’s projects always clash with the Pentagon and the CIA, pointing out that the absence of the US State Department in its previous structure will have a direct impact on the Sudanese opposition abroad (Taggadum, Sumud, and others). He said that this opposition was the main reference for all the work that took place in Sudan, starting with the appointment of a special envoy, through the Quartet, and up to the framework agreement. He added that all political arrangements in Sudan were orchestrated by the US State Department and behind it Assistant Secretary Molly Phee. He argued that the US State Department also directed donor agencies in America and Europe that were paying the costs of “Taggadum” activities, and that this stopped with Trump’s dissolution of the international grant agency, stressing that the largest party affected by this is the Sudanese opposition abroad. He pointed out that the most important thing in the US decision was the absence of any project related to human rights and democracy in Africa. He said that this means that there is no longer any kind of American interest in changing regimes in Africa, adding that its impact on the Sudanese government depends on the government itself and the projects it will present to America. He believed that a Sudanese investment vision should be presented, including a vision for investment projects in the country.
Neglect is better.
For his part, Sudanese journalist and political analyst Mekki Al-Maghribi believes that the world is inevitably entering an era of American decline. Al-Maghribi told Sudanhorizon, “A number of thinkers have spoken about this, saying that America’s internal problems and deep divisions will distract it from expanding its influence in the world, and the answer is clear from the headline.” He added that Trump was clear about this during his election campaign, emphasizing that countries and entities that relied on America, its green light, and its cover to attack Sudan will fail. He said that these countries will be exposed, and America will abandon them, leaving them to face the curses of the Sudanese people alone. He explained that closing the Africa office means reducing the normal diplomatic connection through the US State Department and reducing the African file to urgent or important matters. He said that this is closer to erasing Africa from the American diplomatic map, keeping a number of countries, and dealing with emergencies and developments through the White House. He added, “In short, we have become accustomed to American neglect being better than attention.”
New Isolationism
For his part, Egyptian expert on African affairs Dr. Hamdi Abdel Rahman stressed that the US withdrawal from Africa, particularly the Sahel region, will significantly impact the war on terrorism. Abdel Rahman told Sudanhorizon that the American and Western presence in general has played a significant role in monitoring and pursuing terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and Boko Haram, in addition to curbing arms smuggling and illegal immigration. He pointed out that this withdrawal, under the new “Trumpism” and the idea of making America strong and great again, is what Trump calls “new isolationism.” He pointed out that this raises fears of the rise of terrorist groups and the deterioration of the security situation. He stated that national armies often lack the financial and technical capacity to confront these challenges alone.
The First Beneficiary
The Egyptian expert pointed out that there is a clear security vacuum in Africa. He said that the Sahel Alliance countries have attempted to fill this vacuum through an alliance with Russia, adding that Russia is the primary beneficiary of this, primarily through the Wagner Group and the African Corps, to compensate for the absence of Western support. He pointed out that China and Turkey have strengthened their presence in the region by focusing on the economy more than security, stressing that this is creating new areas of influence. He said that this represents a redrawing of the map of international influence in Africa. He added that Russia has already begun to strengthen its military and security presence, as has China, Turkey, and even India, in expanding their economic influence. He noted that this makes Africa a new arena for competition by multiple international powers. He said that this shift could push Africa toward further polarization and perhaps make it one of the fronts of the new Cold War, given the international competition over resources and strategic corridors on the continent.
He pointed out that in light of the American retreat, there is a war of corridors, such as the “Libitou” Corridor, which is supported by the United States, and the “Belt and Road” Initiative, both of which are in conflict. He warned of the escalation of terrorist threats in light of this withdrawal and the worsening of the Security crisis.
The most affected
Sudanese researcher in African affairs, Dr. Mohammed Toorshain, also believes the new Trump administration’s decisions regarding Africa may differ completely from those of previous administrations. Toorshain told Sudanhorizon that this will significantly impact military and intelligence cooperation between the United States and many countries suffering from terrorist groups’ activities in the African Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea countries. He added that the Gulf of Guinea countries will be the most affected, prompting them to cooperate with other regional and international countries such as Russia, China, and Turkey. He pointed out that this means the emergence of new paths to enhance power competition in the region.

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