Will South Sudan Oil Pumping Resume Soon?

Sudanhorizon – Nazik Shamam

Following a short visit by the President of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, Lieutenant General Abdul Fatah Al Burhan, to Juba, South Sudan, Monday, the most tangible outcome of the visit are the formation of a joint committee comprising representatives of the ministries of Energy and Oil in both Sudan and South Sudan, to look into resuming South Sudan petroleum pumping, putting in place, for this end, an operational plan for resumption of oil flow and removing all obstacles related to the pipeline operations, in a way that would ensure its full capacity work.
For over two decades, oil has been the natural resource that fuelled the war in Sudan and then ignited the fire of conflict between the two countries, Sudan and South Sudan, repeatedly after the separation.
Ironically, these conflicts were also put off by means of the same resource: oil. The black gold that played a leading role in the separation of South Sudan from the mainland in 2011 was also the same resource that brought the two states to strike an agreement underlining the need for the petroleum flow, holding higher their joint economic interests.
Most recently, following the conclusion of an agreement between Khartoum and Juba stipulating the passage of South Sudan’s oil through Sudanese national territory upon payment of sovereign fees to the Sudan and under the supervision of the international community, the situation between the newborn state and the mother country stabilized with regard to the pending oil issues.
However, the conflict that raged a year and a few months ago between the Sudanese National Armed Forces and the rebel Rapid Support Forces has cast negative shadows on the areas through which the oil pipelines pass. The Rapid Support Militia sabotaged the lines, thus frustrating the petroleum flow.
In March, the Sudanese government revealed that it was facing challenges related to the transport of South Sudan’s oil through its pipelines in the Jabalain area and Port Sudan due to fighting between the army and the Rapid Support Forces rebels. Nevertheless, Khartoum quickly intensified its efforts to repair the leak in the oil pipelines.
In April, the Vice President of the Sovereign Council, Major General Malik Agar Air, confirmed that the pipeline transporting South Sudan’s oil to the export point on the Red Sea would be repaired within two months.
The Vice President of the Sovereign Council argued that the war had affected all Sudanese economic sectors. Still, he added, the oil sector was able to preserve its facilities and resume work, contributing to the revival of the Sudanese economy.
The Sudanese Minister of Energy and Oil, Mohy Eddin Naeem, announced that the government was working on a fast-track plan, among other plans that have been discussed, to resume the operation of the oil facilities. He added that the government had other plans in case the war stopped or continued, stressing the government’s ability to live up to war and peace situations.
The minister promised to fix the pipeline within the specified time due to its role in the economies of the two countries. The economy of South Sudan depends on it 100%, compared to 10% for the Sudan national economy.
Last May, the Minister of Oil and Energy, Mohy Eddin Naeem, announced that the work on the resumption of pumping South Sudan’s oil was almost complete and said that work on the project had reached an advanced stage, nearly 80% complete. But during the past months, neither Khartoum nor Juba announced any resumption of pumping south oil, transporting it and exporting it again via Sudanese national territories, contrary to what is being said about solutions that Juba could resort to, which is exporting its oil through other countries.
Perhaps these issues were discussed at the summit held by Lieutenant General Burhan and his counterpart, Lieutenant General Salva Kiir, yesterday, which resulted in the announcement of the formation of a committee to resume pumping South Sudan’s oil.
Former Minister of State at the Ministry of Oil, Consultant Engineer Ishaq Jamaa, believes that the agenda of the visit of the President of the Sovereign Council, Lieutenant General Al-Burhan, although appearing to have been confined to the transit of southern oil through Sudan, there are still some urgent issues that arise within the framework of the ongoing war in Sudan, the rebellion of Himaidti’s forces, known as the Rapid Support Forces, and the impact of the war and its repercussions.
Jamaa confirmed in a statement to the Sudanhorizon news website that the halting of oil exports represents a vital element for the southerners, as oil revenues are the only source of income for the government in the south. This means the war in Sudan hurts South Sudan as well.
Jamaa pointed out that constructing a new pipeline route for exporting southern oil, especially through Ethiopia or other territories, was difficult and that any statements on constructing a new pipeline were nothing but mere manoeuvring.
Jamaa explained that Ethiopia’s geography is a volcanic plateau that rises more than 3,000 meters above sea level. Ethiopia’s climate is not suitable for transporting oil, and therefore, building any pipeline to transport crude oil would cost three times the cost of current lines, i.e., more than 6 billion dollars.
He further pointed to the operating cost due to a large number of additional pumping stations because if you reverse the direction of natural gravity towards the sea, in addition to producing current quantities, this does not allow the economic feasibility of recovering the cost, noting that Ethiopia does not have an outlet to the sea. Therefore, the need arises to arrange the outlet through a country overlooking the sea, and thus, the State of South Sudan has entered into a more complex equation than its current arrangement with the Sudan. He stressed that Sudan is pivotal in its location and geopolitical influences.
Meanwhile, the former Undersecretary of the Ministry of Oil, Dr. Hamid Suleiman Hamid, has confirmed the possibility of resuming the flow of South Sudan’s oil through Sudanese territory.
He said that the pipelines currently operating in this regard do not have any problems other than the security challenges facing Sudan.
Hamed told the “Sudanhorizon” news website that this challenge requires all warring parties to exempt oil facilities and infrastructure from being military targets.
He explained that many models in countries at wars and conflicts have excluded infrastructure and strategic facilities from being within military targets.
Hamed cited the example of the “Droshpa Line”, which has not been touched or affected despite the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which has now for over two years, stressing that this line has been working to transport oil throughout the period of the ongoing conflict between the two nations.
Hamed noted that the passage of pipelines through Sudan enhances the extended relations between Khartoum and Juba. He expressed his hope for the return of these lines to operation because they are economically vital for the two states, enhancing the chances for integration and unity.
Hamed pinpointed the major technical and economic challenges facing South Sudan’s oil export through other countries. He explained that the technical challenges include the existence of high and elevated terrain, noting that Juba, before the secession, conducted studies to export oil through Djibouti, Kenya and Cameroon. Still, it was found that these options were not feasible due to the terrain and the slope processes, which increases the costs and financial burdens and reduces the economic feasibility.