The War on Iran… Could It Accelerate the End of the Insurgency in Sudan?

Dr Ismail Satti
At moments of major transformation in the international system, local wars rarely remain purely internal affairs, and civil conflicts do not persist in isolation from global dynamics. Modern history shows that the fate of weaker states is often decided not only on battlefields within their borders but also during periods of international distraction—when major powers reorder their priorities and shift their focus to perceived more urgent threats.
Today, the world stands on the brink of a broad confrontation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. Should this confrontation escalate, it will not be a passing conflict, but one that reshapes the balance of power across the Middle East and the Red Sea region, with repercussions extending to every state within this strategic space—foremost among them Sudan, which has endured for three years a decisive war between state institutions, represented by the army, and an armed militia that has received external support in weapons and mercenaries. This has prolonged the conflict and opened the door to one of the most serious threats to the country’s unity since independence.
At first glance, a major regional war might appear likely to complicate Sudan’s situation further. However, a more measured reading of events suggests that the impact will vary across the short, medium, and long term—and may even present opportunities not available under normal circumstances, provided the military establishment can accurately assess both risks and openings, and act accordingly.
Short-Term Impact
In the short term, an expanded confrontation with Iran would likely draw the attention of the United States and its allies towards what they consider a far more pressing conflict. In such situations, the capacity of major powers to monitor and intervene in secondary crises tends to diminish.
This does not mean Sudan will fall entirely off the international agenda, but rather that the intensity of engagement, the level of oversight, and efforts to impose political settlements may all decline—despite continued lobbying by externally linked groups seeking to draw Western capitals into Sudanese affairs.
Past experience suggests that periods of global distraction often coincide with shifts in internal power balances within states experiencing civil war, as external pressure eases and realities on the ground increasingly determine outcomes.
Medium-Term Dynamics
In the medium term, the deeper impact lies not only in Washington and Tel Aviv’s preoccupation but in a broader shift in regional priorities. A prolonged war with Iran would elevate Red Sea security to the forefront of international concern.
In such a context, it becomes increasingly untenable for a country of Sudan’s size and strategic location to remain an open arena for competing armed groups with diverse allegiances. Sudan is not peripheral in strategic calculations; it sits along one of the world’s most vital maritime routes, linking its stability directly to that of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and global trade flows.
Under such conditions, both major powers and key regional actors—particularly Saudi Arabia and Egypt—are likely to favour the emergence of a clear central authority capable of controlling territory, rather than the continuation of fragmentation that enables militia expansion and competing external influence.
Would this shift be driven less by political alignment and more by pragmatic calculations: when stability becomes paramount, theoretical positions give way to a central question—who can prevent state collapse? In Sudan’s case, it is difficult to envisage an answer outside the framework of the national military institution, regardless of differing political views on governance.
Long-Term Consequences
The most significant effects, however, emerge in the long term. Major wars do not end merely with ceasefires; they reshape regional power structures. Historical experience in the Middle East indicates that prolonged instability in states located along critical strategic corridors is ultimately deemed unsustainable.
While the international system may tolerate disorder for a time, it eventually seeks a formula for restoring stability—even if this involves backing a single actor capable of imposing control and rebuilding state institutions.
In this context, the continued presence of an armed militia operating outside state control in a country bordering the Red Sea and situated at the intersection of complex regional and international interests is unlikely to remain acceptable indefinitely—not only to Sudanese citizens, but also to external actors whose national security is tied to regional stability.
At that stage, international positions tend to shift, prioritising whichever actor demonstrates the capacity to restore order and prevent the country from becoming a theatre for proxy conflicts.
A Conditional Opportunity
None of this, however, guarantees automatic outcomes. History is replete with examples of states that failed to capitalise on opportunities created by international shifts due to misreading the moment.
Benefiting from the distraction of major powers requires more than rhetoric; it demands strategic political and military management, and the ability to frame the conflict as one of state survival, not merely a contest for power. In times of major global conflict, international actors tend to support not the loudest voice but the one most capable of imposing order and preventing chaos.
Conclusion
Accordingly, the war between the United States and Israel against Iran—should it continue, with all its risks for the region—could become a decisive moment for Sudan, potentially accelerating the victory of the Sudanese Armed Forces, provided they can leverage shifting international priorities and present themselves as the sole guarantor of the country’s unity and stability.
In such moments, battles are not decided on the battlefield alone, but also in how the world interprets events—and in a state’s ability to recognise when to act, when to exercise restraint, and when to seize opportunity amid the distractions of larger conflicts.

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