The Russia-Ukraine War: The Conflict Moves to the African Continent

Sudanhorizon – Ali Al-Basir

The Russian-Ukrainian war began in a new context after choosing the African continent as an alternative theatre of operations to the plains and frost of Eastern Europe. It moved to the middle of the flames of the Sahara Desert, which simultaneously constituted an opportunity for African countries to achieve economic, political, diplomatic, security, and strategic gains.

After the collapse of French and Western influence in the African Sahel regions, Ukraine entered – with Western support, especially from France – as a new player to confront Russian influence by targeting the “Russian Wagner” supporting the Malian army, with Kyiv’s support for the rebels who were able to defeat the Wagner mercenaries in the town of Tinzawaten, the last stronghold of the rebels, on the border between Mali and Algeria, where the regular army faced a tight ambush that ended with the destruction of the military unit, the killing of hundreds of soldiers and the arrest of dozens. This was the first and most severe loss suffered by “Wagner” in the Sahel and Sahara region, and thus, West Africa became a theatre of conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

It is clear that Ukraine has planned in a new way to inflict the greatest defeat on Wagner in Africa and has made progress in its war against Russia by supporting the rebels, most of whom belong to extremist groups in West Africa, in addition to training them so that they can carry out their attacks using drones.

On the other hand, Ukraine has begun to restore its relations with Africa. It has been able, within a short period, to open embassies or establish non-resident representation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Sudan and is preparing to open embassies in other countries, including Burundi, which indicates a new diplomatic movement, especially in the East African region, meaning that it has made West Africa, which has Russian influence, a relentless war zone. It is an ally of those fighting Wagner, whether they are official armies or rebels. At the same time, it has worked to strengthen its diplomatic relations with the countries of East Africa in a heated strategic influence race.

This is evident in a congratulatory message on the anniversary of the founding of the Organization of African Unity (later the African Union) on Africa Day, which falls on May 25 of each year, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, “We have recently witnessed the largest simultaneous wave of opening embassies in Africa.” Zelensky explained in a message published by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, “We have opened several new embassies across the continent, and we will continue to expand our presence, and we hope for cooperation.”

As soon as a Russian tour in Africa ends, it is followed by a Ukrainian tour in the same region. This August witnessed the fourth tour of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, during which he visited Malawi, Zambia, and Mauritius.

In the Republic of Malawi, Dmitry met with Dr. Lazarus Chakwera – President of the Republic of Malawi, and held a meeting to discuss world peace and regional security issues. Minister Dmitry Kuleba said, according to the Malawian newspaper “Nyasa”, that his tour as an envoy of the Ukrainian President is part of the “Grain from Ukraine” program to help friendly countries, explaining that his government has pledged to the Republic of Malawi more support in the field of Food security, modern agricultural technologies, and digitalisation.

Malawi is currently suffering from development problems and food insecurity due to climate change and the exposure of large parts of it to devastating tropical cyclones. In light of this ordeal, the Ukrainian minister says that he appreciates Malawi’s firm position on what he called the Russian aggression against Ukraine and its support for the peace summit statement. Ukraine is not only grateful; we also realise the severe impact of climate change on food security in Malawi. Based on the instructions of President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine has decided to help Malawi respond to its needs.

In Zambia, according to what was announced by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry on August 6, 2024, Mr. Dmytro Kuleba met with his counterpart, His Excellency Mulambo Haimbe and the meeting discussed ways to strengthen bilateral relations between Ukraine and Zambia, as well as cooperation in international organisations. At the end of the meeting, the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding on political consultations and discussed the possibility of collaboration in several areas.

The Zambian scene was repeated similarly to Malawi, especially since Zambia declared a state of emergency in food insecurity due to the drought that hit their country. One of the topics of the Ukrainian meetings was attracting investments and participating in the reconstruction and recovery of Ukraine.

The visit of the Ukrainian Foreign Minister also comes in response to the visits of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who toured Africa in June 2024 to intensify support for Moscow and blame Ukraine for the food supply shortages caused largely by Russia’s attempt to blockade the Black Sea.

Analysts who spoke to the Sudanhorizon news website believe that it has become clear that Ukraine is making great diplomatic efforts to implement its “African strategy”, which aims to counter Russia’s growing influence in Africa. This explains why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in December 2023 that developing relations with African countries is one of Ukraine’s foreign policy priorities for 2024.

Some reports indicated that the Ukrainian Foreign Minister discussed the participation of African companies in the reconstruction of his country, and it is clear that Ukraine suffers from a labour gap, so it chose African countries that suffer from severe food shortages with their previously supportive positions towards Ukraine.

African sensible people have begun to fear Ukraine’s secret and increasing involvement in the region. Many fear that Russia will export its conflict with Ukraine to Africa, while others believe that Africans are aware of the dimensions of the conflict and are calling on leaders to benefit from it.

The wise men and elders of Africa are betting at the SADC summit that Africa is the continent of the future. Some are competing over it, thinking that they will take turns occupying it and exploiting its resources, but awareness of the continent is great and has begun to rise clearly in the various regions of the continent.