“The Quartet”… A Recycled Scenario

By Dr Inas Mohamed Ahmed
Between 1992 and 1995, the world witnessed a major humanitarian disaster in the form of the civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, during which horrific massacres and crimes were committed — a shameful stain on the face of humanity. The war lasted for three years until international powers — including American, Russian, and European — intervened to persuade the warring parties to enter peace negotiations held in Dayton between November 1 and 25, 1995. These talks concluded with the signing of a peace agreement, which was formally signed in Paris on 14 December 1995.
The agreement succeeded in ending the war and in bringing perpetrators of crimes against humanity and war crimes to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. However, it was also riddled with contradictions — for example, while it stipulated the unity of the state, in implementation it effectively split it in two. The accord drew significant criticism, especially with regard to human rights. Despite this, the world still regards the Dayton Agreement as a model for resolving armed conflicts and civil wars, and similar scenarios are often proposed whenever comparable events arise.
In this context, Sudanese people now await the upcoming 29 July meeting of the International Quartet, scheduled to be held in Washington, which aims to lay down steps to halt the ongoing war in our country — after many regional and international attempts have faltered.
From the early signs of events, and by observing U.S. engagement with the war in Sudan, one might surmise that Washington is seeking, via the Quartet (comprising the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), to implement a similar model in Sudan, albeit with some differences. But can the Quartet actually solve Sudan’s crisis using the same formula? That is a legitimate question.
What, then, are the interests of these four countries in seeking peace in Sudan — especially now that Qatar and the UK may be added, turning the Quartet into a Sextet? That too is a legitimate question.
Following the suspension of the Jeddah Forum at the end of 2023 and the failure of IGAD’s efforts in January 2024, along with many other regional initiatives, U.S. concern over the war and its potential geopolitical implications has grown. In response, Washington — as part of the Quartet — has rushed to prepare a binding settlement roadmap, under strong international oversight, to ensure actual implementation. This would include:
Ending hostilities
Allowing humanitarian aid to reach civilians
Entering direct or indirect negotiations
Those who refuse to comply with the Quartet (or Sextet) settlement will face international sanctions. To pressure the Sudanese people into accepting the agreement and its terms, a package of reconstruction and development measures will be proposed — including economic revival programmes, grants, and loans to rebuild what the war has destroyed — just as was done under the Dayton Agreement.
Each of these countries has its own vested interest in ending the war in Sudan:
Some fear Russia establishing a naval base on the Red Sea
Others covet Sudan’s wealth — especially its gold
Some worry about Sudan building closer economic ties with China, Iran, or Turkey
And others fear for their own national security, and therefore want the war to stop
But the most devious among them are those who seek to fuel and prolong the war, funding the militias to serve their Zionist agendas — all while pretending before the world to be champions of peace.
Any negotiations or initiatives involving this malicious statelet of evil will not be welcomed or accepted by the Sudanese people, who will never place their trust in it — even if it clings to the curtains of the Kaaba.
The coming scenario will likely see the Quartet present a document agreed upon by international powers and a few morally bankrupt Sudanese political forces with no public support. However, it will certainly not align with the national interests of the Sudanese people, nor will it heal their wounds. Rather, it will be a betrayal of the martyrs’ blood and a disgrace to a nation that triumphed through its faith and unity.
In the end, neither the Quartet nor the Sextet nor the whole world can impose a solution to this war.
Only Sudanese people hold the key to a genuine national solution.
If the answer does not come from within Sudan and by the Sudanese themselves, then there will be no real peace, no stability, and no security.

Shortlink: https://sudanhorizon.com/?p=6637