Tanzania’s Unrest: The Crisis of the Independence Parties

By Ambassador Atta Al-Manan Bakhit

The United Republic of Tanzania is experiencing an escalating political crisis—its most severe in the country’s modern history. The crisis continues to unfold in a manner that threatens the stable and tolerant political environment for which Tanzania has been known since its independence from Britain in 1961.

The early signs emerged last July, when the timetable for the presidential elections—held at the end of October—was announced. Opposition parties formed a united front led symbolically by Tundu Lissu, the prominent opposition figure and leader of the Chadema party.

The October elections were of critical importance across the Tanzanian political spectrum.

For the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), the current president needed a popular mandate, as she had assumed office in 2021 solely to complete the term of the late President John Magufuli, who died suddenly due to COVID-19. In accordance with the constitution, his deputy, Samia Suluhu, took the presidency until the end of his term.

For the opposition, however, Magufuli represented the last of the giants of the ruling party, and they believed that the moment was ripe to rise to power—carried by the wave of a change-driven Generation Z. Thus, the presidential contest became a fierce showdown for both camps.

The opposition argues that the government employed every legal and non-legal tactic to exclude their main candidates and silence key voices among opinion-formers and media workers, fearing the mobilisation of public sentiment against the ruling party’s nominee. As one opposition comment wryly put it: any one of the approved candidates would lose if he ran alone.

The government, for its part, stated that it is committed to freedom of expression and the integrity of the electoral process, but that it also has a duty to prevent chaos, maintain security, and enforce the law strictly.

Thus, the October presidential election was conducted without the participation of the key opposition candidate—paving the way for President Samia Suluhu to win comfortably and with a high margin.

Meanwhile, the opposition succeeded in mobilising the street to an unprecedented degree in Tanzanian electoral history, leading to violent confrontations between protesters and security forces, in which a significant number of young demonstrators lost their lives.

Domestically, the protests created deep societal tension to the point that the government cancelled all traditional Independence Day celebrations on 9 December, fearing renewed mass demonstrations. There is no doubt that the widespread protests and subsequent losses have caused a dangerous fracture in Tanzania’s longstanding social harmony.

Externally, numerous countries and international organisations questioned the integrity of the recent elections. Several donor states and blocs hinted at a review of their cooperation with Tanzania, posing a threat to the steady economic growth the country has enjoyed in recent years.

What is unfolding in Tanzania has already been witnessed in South Africa, Mozambique, and Namibia, where independence-era parties have faced fierce competition from newer political movements led by a generation born well after independence.

This is essentially a generational struggle:

On one side stand the independence parties, rooted in national symbolism and historical legitimacy, holding on to power as though it were a sacred right.

On the other side stand the parties of the new generation, aspiring to transformation, technological modernity, and a break with the past. They argue that the independence parties have completed their historic mission and must now make space for the youth.

Tanzania’s ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is an independence party—founded by President Julius Nyerere—which led to the independence of Tanganyika and later the union with Zanzibar to form Tanzania. It has governed continuously since independence. Like the African National Congress in South Africa, Frelimo in Mozambique, Swapo in Namibia, and others, such parties have in recent years faced intense rivalry from youthful movements, sometimes compelling them to form alliances and at other times to resort to exclusion.

It is a generational conflict—between the old guard and the new. It is a natural stage in the political evolution of nations, one that requires wisdom, patience, acceptance of the other, and a belief that nation-building is not the preserve of one generation alone, but a collective responsibility for all.

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