Tanzania Enters a Phase of Silent Reconfiguration Factional Struggles Within the Ruling Party, the Rise of Youth Movements, and Open Regional Possibilities

By: Muhannad Awad Mahmoud
Tanzania is currently experiencing a complex political moment that cannot be reduced to an electoral dispute or a passing wave of protests. The country has entered a new phase of deep structural reconfiguration—within the hierarchy of power, within the balance of forces inside the ruling CCM party, and in the state’s relations with its regional and international environment.
At first glance, the situation may appear stable under firm governmental control. But a deeper reading reveals a different reality: a state moving beneath the surface with quiet tension, re-engineering the centres of influence, while new forces rise from outside the traditional system and external actors lie in wait, hoping to seize new leverage in East Africa.
The Trigger: The October 2025 Election
The spark came with the October 2025 elections, which delivered the ruling party a sweeping victory. But it was a troubling victory—one that revealed the system’s fragility more than its strength.
The heavy security presence during the vote, the arrests, internet shutdowns, and excessive response to protests all opened the door to a phase that goes beyond “protecting the system” towards “re-designing it”.
The once-dominant CCM—long a consensual political framework for the state—has become a quiet battleground for competing factions, each with its own internal calculations, external alliances, and distinct vision for the future of governance.
Inside CCM: Two Competing Wings
At the heart of CCM, two broad camps have emerged:
1. The Quiet Reformist Wing
This faction recognises that political legitimacy is under strain. It believes that continued reliance on security-heavy governance will lead the country into isolation and weaken the party in the long term.
Figures such as Jenista Mhagama and Humphrey Polepole represent this new voice within the party—advocating recalibrating relations with the opposition, easing the security grip, and cautiously re-opening the public sphere to restore the party’s balance before it loses its footing entirely.
2. The Dominant Wing of the Deep State
This camp favours tightening its grip and maintaining full control without hesitation.
It is effectively led by Hussein Mwinyi, President of Zanzibar, supported by layers of the intelligence services (TISS), elements around the presidency, and retired officers who form an unofficial council guiding strategic decision-making.
For this faction, political opening is a gateway to chaos. Tanzania’s stability, in their view, can only be preserved through strength, and ensuring CCM remains in power through 2030 and beyond requires anchoring the security establishment firmly at the centre of governance.
President Samia: Managing the Balance
Between these two poles, President Samia Suluhu Hassan manoeuvres with pragmatic dexterity.
She relies on deep-state institutions to manage the streets, yet she also understands that sustained tension could open the door to internal fractures threatening her own position.
Thus, she oscillates between concession and firmness—trying to craft a “balancing act of the possible” between security and politics. But her inclination so far has leaned toward the security wing, as it guarantees cohesion at the top.
Outside CCM: A Rising Youth Wave More Dangerous Than the Traditional Opposition
It is not only the traditional opposition that stands outside this shifting landscape.
New youth-led movements have emerged—movements the state increasingly regards as more dangerous than established political parties.
Groups such as:
Msasawa Movement (Msasawa)
New Generation Network (NGN)
Citizens for Reform (CFR)
have evolved from loose youth collectives into platforms capable of triggering protest waves at any moment. They are not formal political parties, but they embody the spirit of an “alternative political movement.”
They draw limited support from civil society and certain Western circles keen on revitalising Tanzania’s democratic space.
If the country achieves relative stability in 2026, CFR is likely to become a formal political party, posing the first real structural challenge to CCM since its inception.
The Military: A Silent but Decisive Actor
The Tanzanian army, a cornerstone of national stability, requires careful interpretation.
Its institutional culture is guided by a strict doctrine of military neutrality—no political meddling, no coups, and a belief that military interference threatens national unity.
This makes the army a defender of the constitution rather than of the government.
Yet in practice, it remains close to elements of the deep state to maintain stability.
Still, prolonged tension or a significant split within CCM could eventually push the army to intervene—not to rule, but as a “temporary guarantor”, as seen in certain African states when government control erodes without outright collapse.
External Alignments: A Competition for Future Influence
Externally, CCM draws firm support from:
China, which views political stability as essential to its mega-projects in ports, gas, and infrastructure.
India, which favours continuity for long-standing trade and investment ties.
Rwanda and Uganda, providing limited security cooperation under regional frameworks.
Meanwhile, rising youth groups are gaining sympathy from Western actors who fear Tanzania drifting towards a system of “closed electoral authoritarianism”—a trend that could reinforce authoritarian waves across East Africa.
Three Possible Scenarios for the Next Phase
1. Deep-State Consolidation
A forced lull that keeps the peace until the next elections, with a tighter security grip and continued shrinking of the public sphere.
2. Internal Reform Within CCM
The reformist wing gains momentum, driving a reconfiguration of power from within—either by shifting the internal balance or by altering the leadership itself by 2027.
3. Expansion of Youth Mobilisation
A surge in youthful activism forces the government into political concessions—or triggers a crisis requiring temporary military arbitration, though not a coup.
Conclusion: A Republic in Structural Rebirth
Tanzania is slowly leaving behind its era of “political certainty” and entering a phase of “strategic fluidity,” where nothing is fixed:
the ruling party is no longer monolithic,
the state is no longer politically neutral,
the opposition is no longer conventional,
and the military can no longer be entirely removed from future calculations.
The country is entering a cycle of reconfiguration—and what we see today may be only the early tremors of a larger transformation that could reshape the political map of East Africa as a whole.

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