Experts: War on Iran Boosts Sudanese Gold Export Markets

Sudanhorizon – Hala Hamza
Despite the negative impact of the Israeli-American war against Iran and its reflection on the Gulf states’ economies, it has also contributed to a significant push towards gold as the safest store of value.
Experts and academics who spoke to Sudanhorizon expect the war to contribute to a rise in Sudanese gold export revenues to millions of dollars and improve the balance of payments, even though the closure of UAE airspace has caused a rise in local gold prices.
The head of the Gold Export Division, Abdul-Moneim Al-Siddiq, told Sudanhorizon that “Global wars and conflicts, such as the escalation of the American-Israeli-Iranian war, inevitably lead to a rise in the price of the precious metal, prompting investors to buy gold as a store of value. However, for Sudan, the UAE airspace closure will negatively affect local gold prices unless alternative markets are found, as the UAE is considered the largest market for Sudanese gold.”
Abdel Moneim pointed out that Sudan’s neighboring countries, which were once a source of smuggled Sudanese gold, might benefit from this situation, as they could become the sole alternative market.
Dr. Magda Mustafa Sadiq, Dean of the Faculty of Economics, Financial and Banking Studies at Sudan International University, explained that while geopolitical tensions in the Arabian Gulf region have caused economic instability, they have however created some indirect opportunities for other economies, including Sudan, particularly in the areas of gold, financial transfers, agricultural trade, and investment.
Sadiq emphasized that investors typically turn to gold as a safe haven to protect the value of their assets during times of escalating political and military crises worldwide. She noted that this development is particularly significant for Sudan, where gold has become the primary source of foreign currency.
She explained that production estimates indicate Sudan produces between 60 and 100 tons of gold annually, while official exports have reached approximately $1.5 billion in recent years. If global prices rise by 10-15% due to international tensions, export revenues could increase by hundreds of millions of dollars, easing pressure on the balance of payments and providing additional foreign currency reserves.
For his part, economic analyst Dr. Haitham Fathi told Sudanhorizon that Sudanese gold is the country’s largest source of foreign currency and the export commodity most affected by the current conflict between Israel and Iran, as its largest market is the UAE. He pointed out that gold is among the primary beneficiaries of escalating tensions, given its role as a store of value and a key hedge during times of uncertainty.
This is especially true since a wider conflict or threats to shipping lanes in the Gulf could cause prices to skyrocket.
Fathi pointed out that geopolitical tensions are the most influential factor on gold prices in the region, adding: Sudan may not fully benefit from this increase due to the disruption of the official export system. This allows cross-border smuggling networks to flourish and expand their operations into neighboring countries, especially given the difficulty Sudanese authorities face in combating smuggling and the generally unstable state of Sudan’s borders.
The Ministry of Minerals and the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company have yet to respond to questions on the status of alternative Sudanese gold markets to the Emirati market, which both the ministry and the company had previously announced were well underway.

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