Experts to Sudanhorizon: Potential Impacts of the War on Sudan’s Economy

Sudanhorizon – Hala Hamza

Specialists in international trade have warned of indirect economic repercussions for Sudan stemming from the war launched by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic of Iran, noting the limited direct economic ties between Khartoum and Tehran.

Businessman Muhannad Awad told Sudanhorizon that the impact on Sudan would be indirect, given the absence of significant economic relations with Iran. However, he cautioned that the conflict is likely to affect global oil and gas prices, particularly following threats to supplies in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 per cent of global oil trade passes.

Awad predicted a rise in transport and insurance costs, which would increase import costs and, consequently, drive up food prices, particularly flour and wheat.

A senior official at the Importers’ Chamber, who requested anonymity, said the war is expected to push oil prices higher, as around 20 per cent of global oil exports transit the Strait of Hormuz, which has been affected by the conflict. He added that natural gas prices are likely to rise as well. Insurance companies, he noted, may significantly increase premiums or refuse to insure oil and gas tankers due to heightened risk. At the same time, shipping companies are also expected to raise their rates to unprecedented levels.

The official explained that rising oil and gas prices would inevitably increase global prices for other goods, given the link between production costs and energy prices.

Military analyst Dr Amin Magzoub told Sudanhorizon that in the short term, the war could affect the availability of petroleum products, reconstruction supplies and industrial imports. In the longer term, Sudanese exports — including livestock, gum arabic, sesame, hibiscus and even gold — could face disruption due to market instability. He noted that many of Sudan’s traditional export markets are in the Gulf, now exposed to the conflict, which could place additional pressure on the economy.

Magzoub further warned that remittances from Sudanese expatriates in the Gulf and the United States may be affected, alongside potential impacts on the exchange rate and rising inflation.

For his part, Dr Kamal Karrar stated that the air strikes and escalating tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel carry economic consequences for Sudan, despite Iran not being a major trading partner in terms of exports or imports.

Karrar explained that a wider war in the Middle East would exacerbate existing economic challenges, leading to higher inflation and price increases. He emphasised that the Red Sea represents a vital trade artery for Sudan through Port Sudan, and any sustained military escalation could disrupt maritime navigation. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, he added, would raise insurance and shipping costs and delay the arrival of strategic imports — including wheat, fuel and medicines — thereby fuelling further inflation in domestic markets and triggering new waves of price hikes across the country.

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